[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 28 December 24 issued 2330 UT on 28 Dec 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Dec 29 10:30:49 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 DECEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 DECEMBER - 31 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Dec: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M4.5 1121UT possible lower European
M1.3 1518UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.2 2214UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Dec: 260/210
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Dec 30 Dec 31 Dec
Activity R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2, chance R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 260/210 255/205 240/189
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 28-Dec was R1, with an isolated
M4 flare from AR3932 (S17W34, beta-delta). There are currently
eleven numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk, with several
highly complex regions. ARs 3929 (N18W81, alpha), 3933 (S07W63,
beta), 3936 (N14W30, beta-delta) and 3939 (S17E31, beta) have
all grown in the past day. AR3936 is currently the most complex
spot on the disk. Solar activity is expected to be R1-R2 with
a chance for isolated R3 events over 29-31 Dec.
No Earth directed CMEs were observed on UT day 28-Dec.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 28-Dec.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 29-31 Dec.
The solar wind environment on UT day 28-Dec was mostly at background
levels, although a slight disturbance may have occurred later in the
UT day, possibly due to a weak CME glance. The solar wind speed
was on a gentle incline and ranged from 285 to 355 km/s. The
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the
north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +5 to -7 nT. The solar
wind is generally expected to be near background levels over
29-31 Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 28 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 11221122
Cocos Island 3 12210110
Darwin 5 11221122
Townsville 5 12221122
Learmonth 5 11221122
Alice Springs 5 11221122
Gingin 5 21220122
Canberra 3 01220121
Kennaook Cape Grim 4 11221---
Hobart 4 11220121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Dec :
Macquarie Island 2 01210011
Casey 15 24531222
Mawson 8 13220233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 0000 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Dec 6 G0
30 Dec 6 G0
31 Dec 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed on UT day 29-Dec
in the Australian region. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 29-31 Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Dec Normal Normal Normal
30 Dec Normal Normal Normal
31 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 28-Dec were
mostly normal, with some mildly degraded conditions at high latitudes.
HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be mostly normal
over 29-31 dec. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Dec 151
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 127
Dec 117
Jan 114
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Dec 165 Near to 35% above predicted monthly values
30 Dec 165 Near to 35% above predicted monthly values
31 Dec 165 Near to 35% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 149 was issued on
27 December and is current for 28-30 Dec. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 28-Dec were near predicted values to 30% enhanced.
Sporadic-E was common during local day and night hours. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted values to 35% enhanced over
29-31 Dec.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Dec
Speed: 335 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 33200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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