[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 27 December 24 issued 2330 UT on 27 Dec 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat Dec 28 10:30:55 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 DECEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 DECEMBER - 30 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Dec: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.2 1538UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M3.3 2035UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Dec: 259/209
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Dec 29 Dec 30 Dec
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 260/210 260/210 240/189
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 27-Dec was R1, with an M1 flare
at 1538 UT and an M3 flare at 2035 UT. There are currently eight
numbered sunspots on the solar disk. AR3928 (S10W42, beta) and
AR3932 (S13W22, beta-gamma) have grown over the past day. AR3936
(N18W17, beta-delta) and AR3938 (N24E26, beta-gamma) appear to
be decaying and maturing, although remain the most complex regions
on the disk. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in
decay. Solar activity is expected to be R1-R2, chance R3 over
28-30 Dec.
Several CMEs directed mostly to the solar south/ southeast were
observed throughout the day, however the source for most
of these events is likely farside over the eastern limb. These
CMEs are not expected to be geoeffective.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 27-Dec.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 28-30 Dec.
The solar wind on UT day 27-Dec was undisturbed. The solar wind was
on a decline and ranged 537 to 300 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south IMF component
range (Bz) was +5 to -5 nT. The solar wind environment is expected
to remain at background levels over 28-30 Dec.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 27 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 11111111
Cocos Island 1 10011110
Darwin 4 21111212
Townsville 4 21111212
Learmonth 4 11012212
Alice Springs 3 10111211
Gingin 2 10011111
Canberra 2 10111111
Kennaook Cape Grim 3 11111111
Hobart 3 11111111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Dec :
Macquarie Island 2 01110111
Casey 12 34422221
Mawson 8 22223222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 1 0000 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Dec 8 G0
29 Dec 8 G0
30 Dec 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 27-Dec. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 28-30 Dec.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Dec Normal Normal Normal
29 Dec Normal Normal Normal
30 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions on UT day 27-Dec were mostly
normal, with some degradations in mid to high latitudes in the
northern hemisphere. HF radio propagation conditions are expected
to be mostly normal over 28-30 Dec.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Dec 164
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 127
Dec 117
Jan 114
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Dec 170 Near to 35% above predicted monthly values
29 Dec 170 Near to 35% above predicted monthly values
30 Dec 170 Near to 35% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 149 was issued on
27 December and is current for 28-30 Dec. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 27-Dec were near predicted
values to 25% enhanced. Sporadic-E was common at most sites during
local day and night hours. MUFs are expected t be near predicted
values to 35% enhanced over 28-30 Dec.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 6.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Dec
Speed: 376 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 37600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list