[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 26 December 24 issued 2330 UT on 26 Dec 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Dec 27 10:30:43 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 DECEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 DECEMBER - 29 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Dec: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.0 0030UT possible lower West Pacific
M7.3 0315UT probable lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Dec: 256/206
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Dec 28 Dec 29 Dec
Activity R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2, chance R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 255/205 260/210 255/205
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 26-Dec was at the R2 level
due to an M7.4 flare at 26/0315UT, an M3.1 flare was also observed
at 26/0030UT. There were eleven numbered active sunspot regions
visible on the solar disk on 26-Dec. Both M-class flares of the
UT day were produced by two regions concurrently, therefore AR3933
(S09W28, beta-gamma-delta), AR3936 (N10W01, beta) and AR3938
(N17E37, beta-gamma) were responsible for the notable flares
on 26-Dec. AR3936 showed trailer development over the UT day,
AR3932 (S17W14, beta-gamma) also showed spot development. Four
regions, AR3928 (S15W32, beta-gamma), AR3932, AR3933 and AR3938,
are magnetically complex. All other active regions were either
stable or in decline. Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2
levels, with a chance of R3 flaring over 27-29 Dec. S0 solar
radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 26-Dec, the
>10 MeV proton flux as measured at GOES was elevated but in decline
over the UT day. S0 solar radiation storm conditions, with a
chance of S1 are expected over 27-29 Dec. Several CMEs were observed
on 26-Dec, but none are considered geoeffective. The solar wind
speed was in decline over the UT day ranging between 340 and
450 km/s. The solar wind speed is currently at around 355 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 4
nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +3 to -3
nT. The CME which was expected to impact with Earth on 25-26
Dec appears to have passed by with no impact. The solar wind
speed is expected to decline towards background levels over 27-29
Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 26 Dec : A K
Australian Region 1 12000001
Cocos Island 1 12010000
Darwin 1 12000001
Townsville 2 21000012
Learmonth 1 11000001
Alice Springs 1 12000001
Gingin 0 02000000
Canberra 1 12000001
Kennaook Cape Grim 2 12100001
Hobart 1 11100000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Dec :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 7 23322111
Mawson 5 12211212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1111 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Dec 5 G0
28 Dec 5 G0
29 Dec 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 26-Dec. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected on 27-29 Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Dec Normal Normal Normal
28 Dec Normal Normal Normal
29 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 26-Dec were
mostly normal to fair, with degradations at high latitudes mostly
in the second half of the UT day. HF radio propagation conditions
are expected to be mostly normal on 27-29 Dec. Shortwave fadeouts
are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Dec 151
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 127
Dec 117
Jan 114
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Dec 150 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
28 Dec 150 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
29 Dec 150 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 26-Dec were near predicted values to 20% enhanced
during local night, with stronger enhancements in the southern
Australian region. Sporadic-E was observed during local night
hours at Hobart, Canberra, Perth and Brisbane. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced on 27-29
Dec. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Dec
Speed: 476 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 95400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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