[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 23 December 24 issued 2330 UT on 23 Dec 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Tue Dec 24 10:30:49 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 DECEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 DECEMBER - 26 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Dec: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 0231UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.0 0629UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M9.0 1112UT probable lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Dec: 238/187
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Dec 25 Dec 26 Dec
Activity R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2, chance R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 230/180 230/180 230/180
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 23-Dec was R2, with an isolated
M8.9 solar flare from AR3928 (S08E05, beta-gamma). There are
currently seven numbered sunspots on the disk, with several being
highly complex regions. AR3927 (S03E05, beta-gamma) and AR3928
have grown over the past day, and AR3932 (S12E30, beta-gamma)
appears unstable. Other sunspots are either stable or in decay.
Solar activity is expected to be R1-R2 with a slight chance for
R3 over 24-26 Dec.
A partial halo CME was observed from 23/1136
UT. This CME was associated with the M8.9 flare near S10E20, although
was directed relatively southward. This CME is expected to have an Earth
arrival from either late 25-Dec or early 26-Dec UT day, however given
limited available imagery analysis of this event was limited.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 23-Dec,
with the 10 MeV protons peaking at 4.17 pfu. S0-S1 solar radiation
storm conditions are expected over 24-26 Dec.
The solar wind environment was mostly undisturbed on UT day 23-Dec. The solar
wind speed ranged from 485 to 630 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component
range (Bz) was +4 to -6 nT. The solar wind speed may remain elevated
in the next 24 hours due to a small coronal hole wind stream.
The solar wind may become mildly disturbed on UT day 24-Dec due
to two possible CME glancing blows. A further, likely stronger,
disturbance is expected at the end of UT day 25-Dec or early
26-Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 23 Dec : A K
Australian Region 10 32212333
Cocos Island 6 21112322
Darwin 8 22112323
Townsville 10 32212333
Learmonth 10 32212333
Alice Springs 8 31102323
Gingin 10 32212333
Canberra 10 31212333
Kennaook Cape Grim 10 31212333
Hobart 10 32212333
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Dec :
Macquarie Island 9 12213422
Casey 34 45644434
Mawson 24 44424444
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 11 1113 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Dec 16 G0-G1
25 Dec 20 G1-G2
26 Dec 14 G0-G1, chance G2
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed on UT day 23-Dec
in the Australian region. G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic regions. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected
on 24-Dec due to two possible CME glancing blows. G1-G2 geomagnetic
conditions are possible by the end of UT day 25-Dec or early
26-Dec due to a CME launched on 23-Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Dec Normal Normal-fair Poor(PCA)
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Dec Normal Normal-fair Poor(PCA)
25 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
26 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were fair to poor at
high latitudes due to ongoing polar cap absorption (PCA). Conditions
were generally normal at mid to low latitudes. PCA is expected
to continue over 24-25 Dec, but ease towards normal conditions.
HF propagation may become degraded due to expected geomagnetic
activity though over 24-26 Dec, with harshest degradations during
local night hours. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Dec 114
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 127
Dec 117
Jan 114
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Dec 120 Near predicted monthly values to 10-15% depressed
25 Dec 115 Near predicted monthly values to 10-15% depressed
26 Dec 105 Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 23-Dec were mostly near predicted values. Sporadic
E was common at most sites during local night hours. Polar cap
absorption affected mid to high latitudes. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted values to 15% depressed over 24-26 Dec due
to multiple CME impacts expected. Sporadic E is expected to continue.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.4E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Dec
Speed: 590 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 237000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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