[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 24 December 24 issued 2330 UT on 24 Dec 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed Dec 25 10:30:49 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 DECEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 DECEMBER - 27 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Dec: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M4.8 0019UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.0 0211UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M4.1 0841UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.1 1410UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.3 1634UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.1 1824UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.0 2029UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.2 2234UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Dec: 259/209
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Dec 26 Dec 27 Dec
Activity R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2, chance R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 260/210 260/210 255/205
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 24-Dec was R1, with several
flares, the largest being M4. The group of sunspots near the
center disk were responsible for a majority of the flares: AR3928
(S14W04, beta-gamma), AR3932 (S16E17, beta-gamma) and AR3933
(S07W03, beta-gamma-delta). All three of these regions have shown
steady growth over the past day. AR3936 (N13E30, beta) has also
shown growth over the past day. These four regions are the most
complex on the disk and may have potential for high level flares
in the next few days. Solar activity is expected to be R1-R2,
with a chance for R3 over 25-27 Dec.
Two CMEs were observed on UT day 24-Dec, directed mostly to the south.
Both of these CMEs originated from near AR3932 and were relatively slow.
There may be a weak glancing blow on 28-Dec.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 24-Dec.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 25-27 Dec.
The solar wind environment on UT day 24-Dec was mostly undisturbed.
The solar wind speed was on a decline as Earth exits the range from
a small coronal hole. The solar wind speed ranged from 650 to 462 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the
north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +6 to -6 nT. The solar wind is
expected to become disturbed either late on 25-Dec or early 26-Dec due
to a CME that was first observed on UT day 23-Dec. Effects are
likely to continue over 26-Dec but begin to return to background
levels by 27-dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 24 Dec : A K
Australian Region 8 23212223
Cocos Island 6 22212122
Darwin 5 22112212
Townsville 8 23212213
Learmonth 10 33222322
Alice Springs 6 22212212
Gingin 10 32222323
Canberra 8 23212223
Kennaook Cape Grim 8 23212223
Hobart 9 23212323
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Dec :
Macquarie Island 9 23203322
Casey 31 55633333
Mawson 22 34334335
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 10 3110 2334
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Dec 20 G1-G2
26 Dec 14 G0-G1, chance G2
27 Dec 10 G0, chance G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 24-Dec. G0-G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. A CME is expected to arrive either late
25-Dec or early 26-Dec and induce G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions,
settling down by 27-Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
27 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 24-Dec were
generally normal, with some mild depressions in the southern
hemisphere in the first half of the day. HF radio propagation
conditions are expected to be mostly normal on 25-Dec, before
becoming mildly degraded on 26-Dec due to anticipated geomagnetic
activity. Conditions are expected to return to normal on 27-Dec.
Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Dec 132
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 127
Dec 117
Jan 114
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Dec 115 Near predicted monthly values
26 Dec 105 Near predicted monthly values to 10-15% depressed
27 Dec 110 Near predicted monthly values to 10-15% depressed
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 148 was issued on
23 December and is current for 24-26 Dec. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 24-Dec were near predicted
values. Sporadic-E was observed in most sites during local night
hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted values for most
of 25-Dec. Depressions of 10-15% may commence from early 26-Dec
due to anticipated geomagnetic activity. Depressions may continue
into 27-Dec.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.5E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Dec
Speed: 559 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 240000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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