[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 19 December 24 issued 2330 UT on 19 Dec 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Dec 20 10:30:50 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 DECEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 DECEMBER - 22 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Dec: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.6 1038UT possible lower European
M3.8 1534UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.7 1900UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Dec: 175/129
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Dec 21 Dec 22 Dec
Activity R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R2, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 180/133 180/133
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 19-Dec was R1, with three low-level
M-class solar flares. The highest flare of the day was M3.7,
which originated from new region AR3928 (S11E63, beta). There
are currently five numbered sunspots on the disk. AR3927 (S08E59,
beta) and AR3928 have grown over the past day as it has rotated
into view. AR3922 (S20W50, beta) has been mostly stable despite
releasing two M1 flares. All other sunspot regions are stable.
Solar activity is expected to be R0-R1, with a chance for isolated
R2 flares.
A CME was observed directed to the solar southwest
from 19/1448 UT, but has been analysed as a farside event. No
other noteworthy CMEs were observed on UT day 19-Dec.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 19-Dec. S0
solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 20-22 Dec.
The solar wind environment on UT day 19-Dec was mostly undisturbed.
The solar wind was on a decline and ranged from near 600 to 400
km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt)
was 6 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) was +5 to -6
nT. The solar wind is expected to be near background conditions
over 20-22 Dec.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 19 Dec : A K
Australian Region 6 32211122
Cocos Island 4 22111021
Darwin 6 32111122
Townsville 6 32112122
Learmonth 6 32211122
Alice Springs 5 32101112
Gingin 6 32211022
Canberra 6 32201122
Kennaook Cape Grim 9 322-----
Hobart 9 32312123
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Dec :
Macquarie Island 5 22212112
Casey 33 56633133
Mawson 25 54433235
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12 3123 3331
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Dec 5 G0
21 Dec 5 G0
22 Dec 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 19-Dec. G0-G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 20-22 Dec.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Dec Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Dec Normal Normal Normal
21 Dec Normal Normal Normal
22 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were mildly degraded
at the start of the UT day, with improving conditions throughout
the day. HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be mostly
normal over 20-22 Dec. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Dec 111
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 127
Dec 117
Jan 114
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Dec 110 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
21 Dec 115 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
22 Dec 120 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 145 was issued on
18 December and is current for 18-20 Dec. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 19-Dec were mostly
near predicted monthly values. Sporadic-E was common at most
sites during local night hours. Darwin and Learmonth were degraded
during local daylight and night hours. MUFs are expected to be
near predicted values and up to 15-20% enhanced over 20-22 Dec.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Dec
Speed: 516 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 216000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list