[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 18 December 24 issued 2330 UT on 18 Dec 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Dec 19 10:30:48 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 DECEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 DECEMBER - 21 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Dec: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Dec: 174/128
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Dec 20 Dec 21 Dec
Activity R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 185/138 190/143
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 18-Dec was R0, with no significant
solar flares. There are currently four numbered sunspot regions
on the solar disk. AR3922 (S19WW37, beta-gamma) and AR3924 (S19W65,
beta) have shown some consolidation in their spots. All other
sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity
is expected to be R0-R1, chance R2 over 19-21 Dec.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 18-Dec.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 19-21 Dec.
No CMEs were observed on UT day 18-Dec.
The solar wind speed on UT day 18-Dec was generally
undisturbed, with lingering CME effects at the beginning
of the day. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 13 nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was
+6 to -8 nT. The solar wind speed ranged between 548 to 722 as
reported by the ACE satellite, but is expcted to begin to decline
to near background conditions on 19-Dec and over 20-21 Dec.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 18 Dec : A K
Australian Region 12 32323332
Cocos Island 9 32222330
Darwin 8 21223322
Townsville 12 32323332
Learmonth 12 32332332
Alice Springs 11 31323332
Gingin 12 32322432
Canberra 11 32323331
Kennaook Cape Grim 12 32323332
Hobart 12 32323332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Dec :
Macquarie Island 15 32234342
Casey 50 56754433
Mawson 33 54444553
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 25 3544 4532
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Dec 8 G0
20 Dec 5 G0
21 Dec 5 G0
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions on UT day 18-Dec were G0 in the
Australian region and G0-G1 in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 19-21 Dec.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Dec Poor Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
20 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 18-Dec were
moderately degraded, especially in the southern hemisphere and
in high latitudes. HF radio propagation conditions are expected
to improve on 19-Dec and normal conditions are expected over
20-21 Dec.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Dec 63
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 127
Dec 117
Jan 114
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Dec 95 Near predicted monthly values to 10-15% depressed
20 Dec 100 Near predicted monthly values
21 Dec 110 Near predicted monthly values to 10-15% enhanced
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 145 was issued on
18 December and is current for 18-20 Dec. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 18-Dec were depressed
from 15-30%. Sporadic E was common during local night hours in
most sites. Conditions at Darwin were significantly degraded
during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be mildly degraded
on 19-Dec, but on a general improving trend to near predicted
monthly values over 20-21 Dec.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Dec
Speed: 597 km/sec Density: 9.4 p/cc Temp: 79800 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list