[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 20 December 24 issued 2330 UT on 20 Dec 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat Dec 21 10:30:54 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 DECEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 DECEMBER - 23 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Dec: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.1 0726UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M2.5 1118UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Dec: 184/137
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Dec 22 Dec 23 Dec
Activity R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 175/129 175/129
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 20-Dec was at the R1 level,
due to an M2.1 flare at 20/0726UT and an M2.5 flare at 20/1118UT.
There are currently up to nine numbered sunspots on the disk.
AR3922 (S19W60, beta-gamma) and AR3928 (S17E53, beta) were responsible
for the M-class flares in the UT day. Both of these regions appeared
stable over the UT day, however AR3927 (S11E48, beta-gamma) and
AR3929 (N17E34, beta) showed minor spot development on 20-Dec.
An unnumbered region has developed on the solar disk at around
S18W24 with beta magnetic complexity. All other sunspot regions
are stable. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels,
with a chance of isolated R2 flares. S0 solar radiation storm
conditions were observed on UT day 20-Dec. S0 solar radiation
storm conditions are expected over 21-23 Dec. No geoeffective
CMEs have been observed over the UT day. The solar wind speed
was mostly elevated and steady over the UT day, ranging between
430 km/s and 550 km/s. The solar wind speed is currently at around
490 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 10 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) was +8 to
-9 nT. The solar wind is expected to gradually decline towards
background levels over 21-23 Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 20 Dec : A K
Australian Region 8 22123322
Cocos Island 7 22122322
Darwin 7 22122322
Townsville 9 32123322
Learmonth 11 32123333
Alice Springs 9 22123332
Gingin 11 32123333
Canberra 8 22123322
Kennaook Cape Grim 9 22123332
Hobart 10 22124322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Dec :
Macquarie Island 12 22125322
Casey 30 55444344
Mawson 31 54344553
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 4210 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Dec 8 G0
22 Dec 8 G0
23 Dec 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 20-Dec. G1 conditions were observed in the Antarctic
region. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 21-23 Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Dec Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal
22 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal
23 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were mildly degraded
at the start of 20-Dec, with improving conditions throughout
the day at low to mid latitudes. HF radio propagation conditions
are expected to be mostly normal to fair over 21-23 Dec. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Dec 134
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 127
Dec 117
Jan 114
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Dec 130 Near predicted monthly values
22 Dec 130 Near predicted monthly values
23 Dec 130 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 20-Dec were mostly near predicted monthly values.
Sporadic-E conditions have improved from previous days. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted values over 21-23 Dec. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Dec
Speed: 444 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 86800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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