[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 15 December 24 issued 2330 UT on 15 Dec 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Dec 16 10:30:49 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 DECEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 DECEMBER - 18 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Dec: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.1 2024UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Dec: 172/126
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Dec 17 Dec 18 Dec
Activity R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 170/124 170/124
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 15-Dec was R1, with an isolated
M3.1 solar flare from AR. There are currently five numbered sunspot
regions on the disk. AR3924 (S19W24, beta-gamma) continues to
dominate as the most complex region and has shown growth in size
in the past day, but has remained quiet so far. AR3920 (N23W37,
beta) has shown decay in its trailer spots. All other sunspots
are either stable. Solar activity is expected to be R0-R1 with
a chance for R2 over 16-18 Dec.
Several CMEs were observed on 15-Dec. Slow and narrow CMEs were
observed continuously off the western limb, but these are not
considered to be geoeffective. From 0136 UT a wide CME was observed
to the southwest, associated with a large filament eruption. This CME
may have a weak impact on 17-Dec. A partial halo CME was observed from
1436 UT, but this event has been assessed as farside and therefore not
geoeffective. A faint partial halo can be seen in STEREO A imagery
from 0523 UT, but the origin and trajectory of this event is still under
investigation.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 15-Dec.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 16-18 Dec.
The solar wind environment was mildly disturbed on UT day 15-Dec.
The solar wind speed was on an incline and ranged between 336 to 445 km/s,
likely due to the onset of the small coronal hole in the northwestern solar
quadrant.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 13 nT and the
north-south IMF range (Bz) was +6 to -11 nT. The solar wind environment
is expected to return to near background levels over 16-Dec,
before becoming mildly disturbed by late 17-Dec due to the anticipated
arrival of the CME associated with the filament eruption.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 15 Dec : A K
Australian Region 9 22233222
Cocos Island 4 11122121
Darwin 8 22133122
Townsville 11 22233233
Learmonth 10 22233232
Alice Springs 9 22233222
Gingin 9 22233132
Canberra 8 21233222
Kennaook Cape Grim 10 22333222
Hobart 10 22333222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Dec :
Macquarie Island 16 23245322
Casey 19 44443133
Mawson 21 43334253
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 11 1113 2442
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Dec 6 G0
17 Dec 12 G0-G1
18 Dec 10 G0, chance G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 15-Dec. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
on 16-Dec, before a possible CME arrival on 17-Dec that may induce
G1 geomagnetic conditions. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions are
expected on 18-Dec, although there may remain a small chance
for G1 on this day.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Dec Normal Normal Normal
17 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
18 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 15-Dec were
mostly normal. HF radio propagation conditions are expected to
be mostly normal on 16-Dec. Some mild degradations to high latitudes
are possible over 17-18 Dec due to anticipated geomagnetic activity.
Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Dec 113
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 127
Dec 117
Jan 114
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Dec 125 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
17 Dec 135 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
18 Dec 120 Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 144 was issued on
15 December and is current for 15-17 Dec. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 15-Dec were mostly
near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced. Sporadic E was
common during local night hours at most sites. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted vales over 16-18 Dec. Some mild enhancements
are possible early in the period and then mild depressions are
possible later in the period due to possible geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Dec
Speed: 318 km/sec Density: 5.9 p/cc Temp: 34200 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list