[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 16 December 24 issued 2330 UT on 16 Dec 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Tue Dec 17 10:30:43 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 DECEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 DECEMBER - 19 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Dec: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Dec: 167/121
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Dec 18 Dec 19 Dec
Activity R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 170/124 175/129
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 16-Dec was at the R0 level,
with only low level C-class flares observed. There are currently
six numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3922
(S19W10, beta) and AR3924 (S19W40, beta) both showed spot development
over the UT day. All other sunspots appeared stable. Solar activity
is expected to be at R0-R1 levels with a chance of R2 over 17-19
Dec. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT
day 16-Dec, with a very slight enhancement in >10MeV protons
observed. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over
17-19 Dec. No geoeffective CMEs were observed on 16-Dec. A partial
halo CME from 15-Dec has been further analysed. This CME is obscured
by a denser non-geoeffective CME in SOHO imagery, making analysis
more complicated. Modelling of this CME suggests a component
will impact Earth on 17-Dec at 1000UT +/- 12 hours. An energetic
ion enhancement event began at 16/1850UT which may be a precursor
of this CME impact. The solar wind speed decreased on UT day
16-Dec. The solar wind speed ranged between 350 km/s and 470
km/s and is currently near 380 km/s. A mild spike in the solar
wind speed was observed at around 16/0335UT but did not change
the overall downward trajectory over the UT day. This spike was
concurrent with a spike in solar wind density and is likely indictive
of a mild CME impact. The peak total interplanetary field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 12 nT and the north-south IMF range (Bz) was +6
to -7 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to increase on 17-Dec
due to an impact from a CME first observed on 15-Dec. The solar
wind speed is expected to be elevated with a declining trend
over 18-19 Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 16 Dec : A K
Australian Region 8 13221232
Cocos Island 7 13221222
Darwin 8 23221232
Townsville 12 24221333
Learmonth 10 14221332
Alice Springs 8 13221232
Gingin 8 23221232
Canberra 9 13221233
Kennaook Cape Grim 12 13332333
Hobart 12 13332333
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Dec :
Macquarie Island 19 03454332
Casey 24 46342233
Mawson 20 35433333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 2313 3232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Dec 25 G1, chance of G2
18 Dec 10 G0
19 Dec 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 16-Dec. Mostly G1 conditions were observed in
the Antarctic region, with a period of G2 observed at Casey.
G1 geomagnetic conditions, with a chance of G2 are expected on
17-Dec due to an anticipated impact from a CME first observed
on 15-Dec. G0 conditions are expected on 18-19 Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Dec Fair-normal Fair Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Dec Fair Fair Fair-poor
18 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal
19 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 16-Dec were
mostly fair with poorer conditions at the start and end of the
UT day and at high latitudes. HF radio propagation conditions
are expected to be fair to normal over 17-18 Dec due to anticipated
geomagnetic activity. Conditions are expected to be mostly normal
on 19-Dec. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Dec 115
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 127
Dec 117
Jan 114
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Dec 120 Near predicted monthly values
18 Dec 120 Near predicted monthly values
19 Dec 130 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 144 was issued on
15 December and is current for 15-17 Dec. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 16-Dec were mostly
near predicted monthly values. Sporadic E was observed at Perth
and Townsville during local night. Spread F was observed at Hobart
during local night. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
vales over 17-19 Dec, with mild depressions possible on 17-18
Dec due to anticipated geomagnetic activity. Sporadic E is more
likely to be observed around the Australian region over December
than at other times of the year. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Dec
Speed: 408 km/sec Density: 5.9 p/cc Temp: 58700 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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