[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 14 December 24 issued 2331 UT on 14 Dec 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Dec 15 10:31:34 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 DECEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 DECEMBER - 17 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Dec: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Dec: 171/125
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Dec 16 Dec 17 Dec
Activity R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 170/124 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 14-Dec was R0, with no significant
solar flares. There are currently four numbered sunspots on the
disk. AR3924 (S19W12, beta) has shown some growth in its trailing
spots and AR3920 (N22W25, beta) has shown some slight growth
in overall size. All othe sunspot regions are either stable or
in decay. Solar activity is expected to be R0-R1 over 15-17 Dec
with a chance for R2.
The end of a large filament currently near AR3917 (S07W65, beta) has been
observed erupting throughout the day. Slow CMEs have been observed
directed to the west to southwest limb at 0600 UT, 0924 UT and 1800 UT,
likely associated with the filament activity. These CMEs are not expected
to be geoeffective.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on 14-Dec.S0
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 15-17 Dec.
The solar wind environment was mildly disturbed on UT day 14-Dec.
The solar wind speed was generally steady and ranged between
near 300-350 km/s, however the solar wind strength was on a gentle
incline. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt)
was 13 nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +5
to -10 nT, with Bz being oriented southward from 1300 to 1815
UT.The solar wind environment is expected to continue to be mildly
disturbed as a small coronal hole may become geoeffective on
15-Dec. Conditions are expected to ease to near background levels
over 16-17 Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 14 Dec : A K
Australian Region 6 21222222
Cocos Island 4 21211111
Darwin 6 21222122
Townsville 5 11222122
Learmonth 7 21222223
Alice Springs 6 21222212
Gingin 8 31222322
Canberra 5 11221212
Kennaook Cape Grim 6 21222222
Hobart 5 11221222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Dec :
Macquarie Island 15 10243532
Casey 11 33332222
Mawson 20 33223552
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 0011 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Dec 12 G0, slight chance G1
16 Dec 8 G0
17 Dec 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 14-Dec. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in Antarctica. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 15-17 Dec, with a slight chance for G1 on 15-Dec due to
the possible onset of a small coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Dec Normal Normal Fair
16 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were generally normal
on 14-Dec. HF conditions are generally expected to be normal
over 15-17 Dec, with some nighttime degradations at high latitudes.
Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Dec 141
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 127
Dec 117
Jan 114
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Dec 135 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
16 Dec 135 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
17 Dec 135 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 14-Dec were near predicted values to 25% enhanced.
Sporadic-E was common at most sites during local night hours.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted values to 15% enhanced
over 15-17 Dec. Nighttime sporadic E is expected to continue.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Dec
Speed: 338 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 76200 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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