[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 12 December 24 issued 2330 UT on 12 Dec 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Dec 13 10:30:49 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 DECEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 DECEMBER - 15 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Dec: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.2 1743UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.6 2107UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Dec: 161/115
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 165/119 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 12-Dec was at the R1 level
due to an M2.2 flare at 12/1743UT and an M1.6 flare at 12/2107UT
There are currently five numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk and one unnumbered region. AR3922 (S18E37, beta)
was responsible for both of the M-class flares in the UT day,
this region showed spot development on 12-Dec. AR3920 (N23W01,
beta-delta) also showed spot development over the UT day whilst
AR3917 (S08W41, beta-gamma-delta) is the most magnetically complex
region on the solar disk, but appears mostly stable. All other
sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. An unnumbered
region has developed on the disk at around S20E22 with beta magnetic
characteristics. Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels
over 13-15 Dec. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed
on 12-Dec. S0 conditions are expected over 13-15 Dec. No geoeffective
CMEs were observed on 12-Dec. The solar wind speed on UT day
12-Dec decreased, ranging between 330 and 400 km/s and is currently
near 345 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+5 to -5 nT. The solar wind environment is expected to be benign
on 13-Dec. An increase in solar wind speed is possible over 14-15
Dec due to a pair of coronal holes approaching a geoeffective
location.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 12 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 11211111
Cocos Island 2 11111100
Darwin 3 21101111
Townsville 5 22211122
Learmonth 2 11111101
Alice Springs 2 11101111
Gingin 4 21211211
Canberra 4 12211111
Kennaook Cape Grim 5 12311111
Hobart 4 22211111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Dec :
Macquarie Island 2 12100100
Casey 14 34432222
Mawson 16 44332233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1121 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Dec 5 G0
14 Dec 8 G0
15 Dec 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 12-Dec. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 13-15 Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Dec Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions began the day mostly
degraded with a trend towards normal conditions over the UT day.
Propagation conditions are expected to be mostly normal over
13-15 Dec, with some degradations possible at high latitudes.
Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Dec 148
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 127
Dec 117
Jan 114
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Dec 150 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
14 Dec 150 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
15 Dec 150 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 143 was issued on
11 December and is current for 11-13 Dec. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 12-Dec were near predicted
monthly values with enhancements of up to 15% in the northern
Australian region during local night and in the southern Australian
region during local day. Sporadic E was observed at Hobart over
almost the entire day. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values to 15% enhanced over 13-15 Dec, with sporadic
E likely at Hobart on 13-Dec. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Dec
Speed: 386 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 77800 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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