[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 11 December 24 issued 2330 UT on 11 Dec 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Dec 12 10:30:49 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 DECEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 DECEMBER - 14 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Dec: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.0 0604UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M2.8 1006UT possible lower European
M6.7 1550UT probable lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Dec: 161/115
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 160/114 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 11-Dec was at the R2 level
due to an M6.7 flare at 11/1550UT. In addition, an M2.0 flare
was observed at 11/0604UT and an M2.8 flare was observed at 11/1006UT.
There are currently five numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk. AR3912 (S06W91, beta-gamma) was responsible for
the M6.7 flare but this region has rotated off the visible solar
disk and is not expected to contribute to solar x-ray flux after
12-Dec. AR3922 (S18E59, beta) and AR3920 (N23E22, beta) were
responsible for the other M-class flares on 11-Dec, both of these
regions also showed spot development over the UT day. AR3917
(S09W19, beta-gamma) is the most magnetically complex region,
but showed some decay over the UT day. All other sunspot regions
are stable. Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels
over 12-14 Dec. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed
on 11-Dec. S0 conditions are expected over 12-14 Dec. Several
CMEs were observed, but none are considered geoeffective. The
solar wind speed on UT day 11-Dec decreased, ranging between
340 and 420 km/s and is currently near 370 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +4 to -5 nT. The solar wind speed
is expected to increase slightly over 12-14 Dec due to a series
of coronal holes at or approaching a geoeffective location and
a possible late glancing impact from a CME first observed on
08-Dec.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 11 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 21202111
Cocos Island 2 11112100
Darwin 4 22202111
Townsville 4 11202112
Learmonth 4 21112112
Alice Springs 3 21202101
Gingin 4 22102202
Canberra 4 11202112
Kennaook Cape Grim 4 12212111
Hobart 6 22312112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Dec :
Macquarie Island 9 22433101
Casey 15 45323111
Mawson 12 34323311
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 2222 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Dec 8 G0
13 Dec 5 G0
14 Dec 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 11-Dec. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 observed at Casey. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 12-14 Dec.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Dec Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal
13 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal
14 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were degraded around
the globe with a trend towards normal conditions over the UT
day. Further degradations were observed at the end of the day.
Propagation conditions are expected to be mostly normal-fair
over 12-14 Dec. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Dec 128
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 127
Dec 117
Jan 114
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Dec 130 Near predicted monthly values
13 Dec 130 Near predicted monthly values
14 Dec 130 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 143 was issued on
11 December and is current for 11-13 Dec. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 11-Dec were near predicted
monthly values. Sporadic E was observed at multiple locations
in the Australian region during local night, with more severe
conditions at Canberra and Hobart. MUFs are expected to be near
predicted monthly values over 12-14 Dec, with sporadic E likely
at Hobart and Canberra on 12-Dec. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Dec
Speed: 418 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 113000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list