[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 10 December 24 issued 2330 UT on 10 Dec 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed Dec 11 10:30:51 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 DECEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 DECEMBER - 13 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Dec: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M6.4 0648UT probable lower Mid East/Indian
M1.4 0709UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.5 1102UT possible lower European
M1.6 1758UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Dec: 172/126
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 180/133 180/133
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 10-Dec was at the R2 level
due to an M6.4 flare at 10/0648UT produced by AR3922 (S18E65,
beta). Three flares at the R1 level were observed over the UT
day, also produced by AR3922. There are currently six numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered
region. AR3922 was responsible for the majority of the flare
activity and has shown recent mild spot growth. AR3920 (N23E29,
beta) has exhibited spot development over the UT day. AR3917
(S08W12, beta-gamma) has shown decay in its trailer spots. An
unnumbered region is visible near S17W65 (alpha) and has decayed.
All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar
activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels over 11-13 Dec. Several
CMEs were observed, but none are considered geoeffective. The
solar wind speed on UT day 10-Dec decreased, ranging from 335
to 500 km/s and is currently near 385 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +5 to -6 nT. Several short periods of sustained
southward IMF conditions were observed over the UT day. A small
coronal hole is visible near N35W20 and may influence the solar
wind speed on 12-Dec. The solar wind speed is expected to increase
over 11-13 Dec due to the combined effects of a coronal hole
high speed wind stream and a possible glancing CME arrival on
11-Dec from a CME first observed on 08-Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 10 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 22221111
Cocos Island 2 21111100
Darwin 5 22221111
Townsville 6 22231112
Learmonth 5 31221102
Alice Springs 5 22221111
Gingin 4 21221111
Canberra 4 11221112
Kennaook Cape Grim 5 12231111
Hobart 6 12231112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Dec :
Macquarie Island 9 22342111
Casey 24 65432122
Mawson 15 33333234
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 17 4323 3442
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Dec 12 G0, chance of G1
12 Dec 10 G0
13 Dec 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 10-Dec. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1-G2 observed at Casey. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 11-13 Dec, with a chance of G1 on 11-Dec due to a possible
glancing CME arrival from a CME first observed on 08-Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were mostly normal on
UT day 10-Dec. HF radio propagation conditions are expected to
be mostly normal over 11-13 Dec. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Dec 117
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 127
Dec 117
Jan 114
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Dec 115 Near predicted monthly values
12 Dec 115 Near predicted monthly values
13 Dec 115 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 10-Dec were near predicted monthly values. Sporadic
E was observed at Brisbane during local night hours. MUFs are
expected to be near predicted monthly values over 11-13 Dec.
Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Dec
Speed: 479 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 239000 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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