[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 09 December 24 issued 2331 UT on 09 Dec 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Tue Dec 10 10:31:10 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 DECEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 DECEMBER - 12 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Dec: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Dec: 172/126
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 175/129 180/133
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 09-Dec was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares observed. There are currently five
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered
region. AR3917 (S09E06, beta) is the largest region on the disk
and has shown decay in its intermediate spots, whilst its leader
spots have grown. AR3916 (S15W02, beta-gamma) has decayed. An
unnumbered region is visible near S18E80 (alpha) and appears
stable. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay.
Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 10-12 Dec.
No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed
on UT day 09-Dec increased, ranging from 410 to 520 km/s and
is currently near 490 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 11 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +7 to -9 nT. Several short periods of sustained
southward IMF conditions were observed over the UT day. The solar
wind speed is expected to remain elevated over 10-12 Dec due
to the combined effects of a coronal hole high speed wind stream
and a possible glancing CME arrival on 11-Dec from a CME first
observed on 08-Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 09 Dec : A K
Australian Region 9 22232223
Cocos Island 7 21221223
Darwin 8 22222223
Townsville 9 22232223
Learmonth 11 32332223
Alice Springs 9 22232223
Gingin 10 32232223
Canberra 10 22232323
Kennaook Cape Grim 11 32232323
Hobart 11 32232323
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Dec :
Macquarie Island 37 33355732
Casey 17 35332323
Mawson 25 44344444
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 7 0111 3321
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Dec 8 G0
11 Dec 12 G0, chance of G1
12 Dec 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 09-Dec. Mostly G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period
of G3 observed at Macquarie Island. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 10-12 Dec, with a chance of G1 on 11-Dec due
to the combined effects of a coronal hole high speed wind stream
and a possible glancing arrival from a CME first observed on
08-Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were mostly normal on
UT day 09-Dec. HF radio propagation conditions are expected to
be mostly normal over 10-12 Dec. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Dec 141
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 127
Dec 117
Jan 114
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Dec 130 Near predicted monthly values
11 Dec 130 Near predicted monthly values
12 Dec 130 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 142 was issued on
8 December and is current for 8-10 Dec. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 09-Dec were near predicted
monthly values to 20% enhanced in northern Australia. MUFs are
expected to be near predicted monthly values over 10-12 Dec.
Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Dec
Speed: 371 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 60500 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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