[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 08 December 24 issued 2330 UT on 08 Dec 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Dec 9 10:30:47 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 DECEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 DECEMBER - 11 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Dec: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.2 07/2215UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
X2.2 0906UT probable all Mid East/Indian
M1.5 1611UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Dec: 178/131
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec
Activity R0-R1 chance R2-R3 R0-R1 chance R2-R3 R0-R1 chance R2-R3
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 175/129 175/129
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 08-Dec was at the R3 level
due to an X2.2 flare at 08/0906UT and an M1.5 flare at 08/1611UT.
There are currently six numbered sunspot regions visible on the
solar disk and one unnumbered region. AR3912 (S06W50, beta-gamma)
was responsible for both noteworthy flares in the UT day and
has shown spot development. This region is expected to remain
on the solar disk until 11-Dec. AR3917 (S09E13, beta-delta) remains
magnetically complex, but has not produced any notable flares
recently. An unnumbered region has rotated on to the disk at
around N25E65 likely with beta magnetic characteristics. All
other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity
is expected to be at R0-R1 levels, with a chance of isolated
R2-R3 flares over 09-11 Dec. S0 solar radiation storm conditions
were observed on 08-Dec. S0 conditions are expected on 09-11
Dec, with a chance of S1 conditions due to possible further X-class
flares from AR3912. A CME associated with the X2.2 flare at 08/0906UT
is visible in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery from 08/0924UT. Modelling
suggests this CME will mostly pass ahead of Earth, but there
is a chance of a glancing impact late on 11-Dec (11/1700 +/-
12 hours). The solar wind speed declined for most of the UT day,
ranging between 400 km/s and 325 km/s. An increase was then observed
from around 09/1730UT. The wind speed is currently around 450
km/s but peaked at 492 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 11 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +6 to -9 nT. A jump in Bt was observed from around
09/1730UT concurrent with the increase in solar wind speed. The
increase in solar wind speed and IMF Bt was concurrent with a
drop in solar wind density, indicating the Earth has entered
a high speed wind stream from a pair of coronal holes which have
recently rotated into geoeffective positions. The solar wind
speed is expected to remain slightly elevated over 09-11 Dec
due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects and the chance
of a glancing impact on 11-Dec from a CME first observed on 08-Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 08 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 12122221
Cocos Island 3 22012110
Darwin 5 12122211
Townsville 7 23112231
Learmonth 6 22122222
Alice Springs 4 02022221
Gingin 6 21132122
Canberra 5 12112230
Kennaook Cape Grim 5 22112221
Hobart 5 12112221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Dec :
Macquarie Island 7 11224220
Casey 14 44332222
Mawson 13 34233232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1111 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Dec 12 G0, chance of G1
10 Dec 8 G0
11 Dec 12 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 08-Dec. G0 geomagnetic conditions,
with a chance of G1 are expected on 09-Dec due to coronal hole
high speed wind stream effects. G0 conditions are expected on
10-Dec. G0 conditions, with a chance of G1 are expected on 11-Dec
due to the chance of a glancing impact from a CME first observed
on 08-Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were mostly normal on
UT day 08-Dec, with fair-poor conditions over the Americas for
the first and last thirds of the UT day. Fair-poor conditions
were observed at high latitudes in the last third of the UT day.
HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be mostly fair-normal
over 09-11 Dec, with the best conditions in the middle of the
UT day. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Dec 133
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 127
Dec 117
Jan 114
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Dec 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 Dec 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
11 Dec 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 142 was issued on
8 December and is current for 8-10 Dec. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 08-Dec were near predicted
monthly values, with some isolated periods of sporadic E impacting
local HF propagation conditions at Darwin, Townsville, Hobart
and Norfolk Island. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values to 15% enhanced over 09-11 Dec, with further isolated
periods of sporadic E possible. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Dec
Speed: 366 km/sec Density: 9.5 p/cc Temp: 44100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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