[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 07 December 24 issued 2330 UT on 07 Dec 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Dec 8 10:30:52 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 DECEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 DECEMBER - 10 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Dec: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.3 1308UT possible lower European
M3.2 2215UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Dec: 183/136
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 180/133 175/129
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 07-Dec was at the R1 level
due to an M2.3 flare at 07/1308UT and an M3.2 flare at 07/2215UT.
There are currently five numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk and one unnumbered region. AR3917 (S09E26, beta-gamma)
was responsible for both of the M-class flares of the UT day
and showed spot development over the day. AR3912 (S06W37, beta)
also showed spot development. An unnumbered region has developed
at around N10E30 with likely beta magnetic characteristics. All
other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity
is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 08-10 Dec. S0 solar radiation
storm conditions were observed on 07-Dec. S0 conditions are expected
on 08-10 Dec. No geoeffective CMEs were observed on 07-Dec. The
solar wind speed on UT day 07-Dec declined, mostly ranging between
340 and 380 km/s until a jump in wind speed to around 390 km/s
at 07/2144UT. The wind speed and is currently near 390 km/s.
A spike in IMF conditions was also observed from 07/2145UT. The
peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10 nT
and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +3 to -4 nT.
The solar wind speed is expected to remain at current levels
over 08-Dec. A pair of non-equatorial coronal holes in the northern
and southern hemisphere are expected to enter a geoeffective
position over 09-10 Dec, giving a chance of an increase in solar
wind speed on 09-10 Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 07 Dec : A K
Australian Region 6 12222122
Cocos Island 5 12221122
Darwin 5 12212122
Townsville 8 13222123
Learmonth 6 12222222
Alice Springs 6 12222122
Gingin 6 12221222
Canberra 5 02212023
Kennaook Cape Grim 7 12222123
Hobart 6 12222122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Dec :
Macquarie Island 4 11132011
Casey 23 36532123
Mawson 12 34323222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1210 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Dec 8 G0
09 Dec 14 G0, chance of G1
10 Dec 16 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 07-Dec. Mostly G0 conditions were observed in
the Antarctic region, with G2 conditions observed at Casey. G0
geomagnetic conditions are expected on 08-Dec. G0 conditions,
with a chance of G1 are expected over 09-10 Dec due to the chance
of coronal hole high speed wind stream effects from a pair of
non-equatorial coronal holes rotating towards a geoeffective
location.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal
09 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were mostly normal on
UT day 07-Dec, with fair-poor conditions over the Americas for
the first and last thirds of the UT day. Fair-poor conditions
were observed at high latitudes in the last third of the UT day.
HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be mostly fair-normal
over 08-10 Dec, with the best conditions in the middle of the
UT day. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Dec 141
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 127
Dec 117
Jan 114
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Dec 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
09 Dec 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 Dec 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the northern Australian
region on UT day 07-Dec were near predicted monthly values to
enhanced by 20% whilst MUFs in the southern Australian region
were near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced. The largest
enhancements were observed during local daylight hours. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
over 09-10 Dec. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Dec
Speed: 376 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 52800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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