[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 06 December 24 issued 2330 UT on 06 Dec 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat Dec 7 10:30:48 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 DECEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 DECEMBER - 09 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Dec: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.2 0920UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Dec: 178/131
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Dec 08 Dec 09 Dec
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 170/124 170/124
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 06-Dec was at the R1 level
due to an M1.4 flare at 06/0926UT. There are currently six numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3917 (S09E39, beta-gamma)
was responsible for the M-class flare at 06/0926UT and showed
spot development over the UT day. AR3912 (S06W24, beta) also
showed spot development. AR3916 (S15E29, beta-gamma) is magnetically
complex, but has not shown spot development. All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be at R0-R1 levels over 07-09 Dec. S0 solar radiation storm
conditions were observed on 06-dec. S0 conditions are expected
on 07-09 Dec. No geoeffective CMEs were observed on 06-Dec. The
solar wind speed on UT day 06-Dec declined, mostly ranging between
340 and 450 km/s and is currently near 380 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +6 to -6 nT. The solar wind speed
is expected to remain at current levels over 07-08 Dec. A pair
of non-equatorial coronal holes in the northern an southern hemisphere
are expected to enter a geoeffective position over 09-10 Dec,
giving a chance of an increase in solar wind speed on 09-Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 06 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 22101121
Cocos Island - --------
Darwin 3 22101111
Townsville 4 22201121
Learmonth 4 22101121
Alice Springs 3 22101111
Gingin 5 32100221
Canberra 3 22100121
Kennaook Cape Grim 3 22200111
Hobart 4 22200211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Dec :
Macquarie Island 2 22100010
Casey 23 55532222
Mawson 12 34312223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1111 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Dec 7 G0
08 Dec 7 G0
09 Dec 14 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 06-Dec. Mostly G0 conditions were observed in
the Antarctic region, with G1 conditions observed at Casey. G0
geomagnetic conditions are expected over 07-08 Dec. G0 conditions,
with a chance of G1 are expected on 09-Dec due to the chance
of coronal hole high speed wind stream effects from a pair of
non-equatorial coronal holes rotating towards a geoeffective
location.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Dec Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Dec Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
08 Dec Normal Normal Normal
09 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were mostly normal on
UT day 06-Dec, with fair-poor conditions over the Americas for
the first and last thirds of the UT day. Fair-poor conditions
were observed at high latitudes in the last third of the UT day.
HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be mostly fair-normal
over 07-09 Dec, with the best conditions in the middle of the
UT day. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Dec 150
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 127
Dec 117
Jan 114
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Dec 155 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
08 Dec 155 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
09 Dec 155 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 141 was issued on
5 December and is current for 5-7 Dec. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 06-Dec were near predicted
monthly values, with mildly enhanced conditions observed in the
northern Australian region during local night. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced over 06-08
Dec. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Dec
Speed: 429 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 113000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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