[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 05 December 24 issued 2330 UT on 05 Dec 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Dec 6 10:30:47 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 DECEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 DECEMBER - 08 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Dec: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 0710UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.1 0820UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M2.5 1040UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Dec: 175/129
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Dec 07 Dec 08 Dec
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 175/129 170/124
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 05-Dec was at the R1 level
due to three M-class flares, the largest of which was an M2.5
flare at 05/1040UT produced by AR3906 (S14W95, beta) which is
now beyond the western limb. There are currently six numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3915 (N11E27, beta)
has shown recent mild spot growth. AR3916 (S15E44, beta) and
AR3917 (S09E53, beta) have both exhibited spot growth over the
UT day. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay.
Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 06-08 Dec.
Several CMEs were observed, but none are considered geoeffective.
The solar wind speed on UT day 05-Dec declined, ranging from
370 to 485 km/s and is currently near 430 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +6 to -6 nT. A southern hemisphere
coronal hole is currently crossing the central meridian and may
influence the solar wind speed in the second half of UT day 06-Dec.
The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated over 06-08
Dec due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 05 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 22210111
Cocos Island 2 12110100
Darwin 4 22111111
Townsville 5 22211122
Learmonth 4 22211102
Alice Springs 5 22210122
Gingin 4 32110012
Canberra 3 21110021
Kennaook Cape Grim 4 22210021
Hobart 5 22210122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Dec :
Macquarie Island 2 22010011
Casey 21 45542122
Mawson 13 34322233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 12 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1112 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Dec 8 G0
07 Dec 10 G0
08 Dec 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 05-Dec. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 06-08 Dec.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were mostly normal on
UT day 05-Dec, with some degradations observed during local night
hours. HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be mostly
normal over 06-08 Dec. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Dec 124
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 127
Dec 117
Jan 114
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Dec 130 Near predicted monthly values
07 Dec 130 Near predicted monthly values
08 Dec 130 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 141 was issued on
5 December and is current for 5-7 Dec. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 05-Dec were near predicted
monthly values. Sporadic E was observed at several Australian
sites during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near
predicted monthly values over 06-08 Dec. Shortwave fadeouts are
possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Dec
Speed: 468 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 183000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list