[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 04 December 24 issued 2330 UT on 04 Dec 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Dec 5 10:30:51 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 DECEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 DECEMBER - 07 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Dec: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.3 1000UT possible lower European
M1.3 2046UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Dec: 175/129
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Dec 06 Dec 07 Dec
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 175/129 175/129
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 04-Dec was at the R1 level
due to three M-class flares, the largest of which was an M2.3
flare at 04/1000UT produced by an unnumbered region currently
near S10E80 (beta). There are currently six numbered sunspot
regions visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered region.
AR3910 (N16W35, beta) has exhibited spot growth in its trailer
spot over the UT day. AR3912 (S06E10, beta) and AR3916 (S16E72,
beta) have both shown decay in their trailer spots. An unnumbered
region recently rotated over the eastern limb and is now near
S10E80 (beta). This region has shown spot growth. All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be at R0-R1 levels over 05-07 Dec. No Earth-directed CMEs
have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 04-Dec mildly
declined, ranging from 430 to 510 km/s and is currently near
450 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 10 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+9 to -6 nT. A southern hemisphere coronal hole is currently
crossing the central meridian and may influence the solar wind
speed in the second half of UT day 06-Dec. The solar wind speed
is expected to decline on 05-Dec then remain elevated over 06-07
Dec due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 04 Dec : A K
Australian Region 6 21123122
Cocos Island 3 11111112
Darwin 5 21112122
Townsville 7 22123122
Learmonth 7 21123222
Alice Springs 6 22113122
Gingin 7 22123122
Canberra 7 21223122
Kennaook Cape Grim 7 21223122
Hobart 7 21223122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Dec :
Macquarie Island 7 11124212
Casey 30 45653223
Mawson 15 33333333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Dec 5 G0
06 Dec 8 G0
07 Dec 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 04-Dec. Mostly G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period
of G2 observed at Casey. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 05-07 Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Dec Normal Normal Normal
06 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were mostly normal on
UT day 04-Dec, with some degradations observed during local night
hours. HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be mostly
normal over 05-07 Dec. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Dec 124
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 127
Dec 117
Jan 114
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Dec 130 Near predicted monthly values
06 Dec 130 Near predicted monthly values
07 Dec 130 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 04-Dec were near predicted monthly values, with
enhancements of up to 20% observed in the northern Australian
region. Sporadic E was observed at several Australian sites during
local night hours. Spread F was observed at Hobart during local
night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
over 05-07 Dec. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Dec
Speed: 435 km/sec Density: 4.9 p/cc Temp: 122000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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