[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 03 December 24 issued 2330 UT on 03 Dec 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed Dec 4 10:30:49 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 DECEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 DECEMBER - 06 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Dec: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Dec: 185/138
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Dec 05 Dec 06 Dec
Activity R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 170/124 170/124
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 03-Dec was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares observed. There are currently seven
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and four unnumbered
regions. AR3905 (S07W83, beta-gamma), AR3906 (S16W80, beta-gamma)
and AR3912 (S06E18, beta-gamma) are the most magnetically complex
regions on the solar disk. All appear mostly stable and AR3905
and AR3906 are expected to rotate off the solar disk over 04-05
Dec. Two small unnumbered regions have appeared on the solar
disk at N19W04 and S08E33, both with alpha magnetic characteristics.
In addition, two new regions have rotated over the eastern limb
at around S06E75 and S12E68, both also with alpha magnetic characteristics.
All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar
activity is expected to be at the R0 level, with a chance of
R1 over 04-06 Dec. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed
on 03-Dec. S0 conditions are expected on 04-06 Dec. No Earth-directed
CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 03-Dec
increased ranging between 380 and 480 km/s and is currently near
470 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 14 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+12 to -13 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to decline towards
background levels over 04-06 Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 03 Dec : A K
Australian Region 11 33222332
Cocos Island 12 33222341
Darwin 11 33222332
Townsville 11 33222332
Learmonth 15 43222442
Alice Springs 10 33122332
Gingin 12 43212332
Canberra 10 33222232
Kennaook Cape Grim 10 33222232
Hobart 10 33222232
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Dec :
Macquarie Island 16 23442341
Casey 32 66433333
Mawson 25 54233453
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 1210 1012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Dec 8 G0
05 Dec 5 G0
06 Dec 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 02-Dec. G2 conditions were observed at Casey
and G1 conditions were observed at Mawson, whilst G0 conditions
were observed at Macquarie Island. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected on 04-06 Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Dec Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
05 Dec Normal Normal Normal
06 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were degraded at all
latitudes in the first and last thirds of the UT day (0000-0800UT
and 1600-2400UT). Conditions were mostly normal during the middle
third of the UT day. HF radio propagation conditions are expected
to be normal to fair over 04-06 Dec, with the most degraded conditions
expected at the start and end of the UT day. Shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Dec 130
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 127
Dec 117
Jan 114
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Dec 130 Near predicted monthly values
05 Dec 130 Near predicted monthly values
06 Dec 130 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 03-Dec were near predicted monthly values, with
enhancements of up to 20% observed in the northern Australian
region. Sporadic E was observed around the Australian region
during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values on 04-06 Dec, with a chance of some mild enhancements.
Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Dec
Speed: 386 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 52300 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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