[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 02 December 24 issued 2330 UT on 02 Dec 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Tue Dec 3 10:30:50 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 DECEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 DECEMBER - 05 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Dec: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Dec: 185/138
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Dec 04 Dec 05 Dec
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 185/138 180/133 170/124
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 02-Dec was at the R0 level,
with only C-class flares observed. There are currently five numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3906 (S14W67, beta-gamma)
is the most magnetically complex region on the disk and showed
some movement in its trailer spots. All other sunspot regions
are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to
be at R0-R1 levels over 03-05 Dec. S0 solar radiation storm conditions
were observed on 02-Dec. S0 conditions are expected on 03-05
Dec. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. A filament lift
off is visible from 02/1400UT at around S09W26 in H-Alpha and
GOES SUIV imagery. No associated CME is visible in available
imagery, further analysis will be performed when more imagery
becomes available. The solar wind speed on UT day 02-Dec was
in decline until a CME impact at 02/2012UT, ranging between 320
and 500 km/s and is currently near 440 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 14 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +10 to -13 nT. Sustained -Bz conditions have been
observed since 02/2205UT and are ongoing. The solar wind speed
is expected to remain elevated on 03-Dec due to a recent CME
impact. The solar wind speed is expected to decline towards background
levels over 04-05 Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 02 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 22101122
Cocos Island 3 1-111121
Darwin 5 22102122
Townsville 5 22112122
Learmonth 5 22102122
Alice Springs 5 22102122
Gingin 4 22101122
Canberra 4 22101122
Kennaook Cape Grim 4 22101122
Hobart 4 22101122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Dec :
Macquarie Island 2 12001021
Casey 20 46322223
Mawson 11 34212223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 1021 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Dec 18 G0-G1
04 Dec 8 G0
05 Dec 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 02-Dec. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G2 at Casey. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 03-Dec
due to a recent CME impact. G0 conditions are expected on 04-05
Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
04 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 02-Dec were
poor-fair at the start and the end of the UT day and were mostly
normal for the majority of the UT day. HF radio propagation conditions
are expected to be mostly normal over 03-05 Dec, with fair to
poor conditions at times at the start and the end of the UT day.
Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Dec 145
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 127
Dec 117
Jan 114
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Dec 125 Near predicted monthly values
04 Dec 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
05 Dec 150 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 02-Dec were near predicted monthly values. Sporadic
E was observed at Casey, Canberra and Darwin during local night
hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
on 03-Dec and near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced on
04-05 Dec. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Dec
Speed: 416 km/sec Density: 4.7 p/cc Temp: 79100 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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