[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 01 December 24 issued 2330 UT on 01 Dec 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Dec 2 10:30:47 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 DECEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 DECEMBER - 04 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Dec: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Dec: 186/139
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Dec 03 Dec 04 Dec
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 185/138 185/138 170/124
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 01-Dec was at the R0 level,
with only C-class flares observed. There are currently six numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3912 (S04E26, beta-gamma)
and AR3906 (S16W52, beta-gamma) are the most magnetically complex
regions on the disk. AR3912 has shown mild growth in its leader
spot, whilst its intermediate spots have decayed. AR3906 has
shown decay in its intermediate spots. All other sunspot regions
are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to
be at R0-R1 levels over 02-04 Dec. No Earth-directed CMEs have
been observed. A filament eruption was observed, visible in H-alpha
imagery near N17W68 at 01/0214UT. A subsequent westward CME was
observed in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at 01/0312UT. Modelling
indicates this CME does not contain a geoeffective component.
The solar wind speed on UT day 01-Dec was variable, ranging from
380 to 460 km/s and is currently near 420 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 11 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +8 to -8 nT. The solar wind speed
is expected to decline toward background levels over 02-04 Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 01 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 22221112
Cocos Island 5 22211211
Darwin 5 22211112
Townsville 7 22212123
Learmonth 7 22212223
Alice Springs 6 22321112
Gingin 6 22221122
Canberra 6 22321112
Kennaook Cape Grim 7 22321113
Hobart 7 22321113
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Dec :
Macquarie Island 4 11230012
Casey 20 44533223
Mawson 14 23322135
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 6 4220 1002
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Dec 12 G0
03 Dec 10 G0
04 Dec 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 01-Dec. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with isolated periods of G1
observed at Casey and Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 02-04 Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 01-Dec were
mostly normal, with some degradations at high latitudes. HF radio
propagation conditions are expected to be mostly normal over
02-04 Dec, with fair conditions at times for high latitudes.
Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Dec 155
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 127
Dec 117
Jan 114
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Dec 155 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
03 Dec 155 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
04 Dec 155 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 01-Dec were near predicted monthly values to
15% enhanced. Sporadic E was observed at Hobart during local
night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted values to
15% enhanced over 02-04 Dec. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Nov
Speed: 397 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 41600 K Bz: 7 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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