[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 30 November 24 issued 2330 UT on 30 Nov 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Dec 1 10:30:47 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 NOVEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 DECEMBER - 03 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Nov: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Nov: 204/155
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Dec 02 Dec 03 Dec
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 205/156 205/156 205/156
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 30-Nov was R0, with no significant
solar flares. There are currently six numbered sunspot regions
on the solar disk. AR3905 (S07W41, beta-gamma) and AR3906 (S16W33,
beta-gamma) remain the largest and most complex regions on the
disk. The largest flare was a C9.3 at 30/0906UT from AR3906.
Using NSO/GONG imagery, region AR3905 has been mostly stable
with some decline and AR3906 has exhibited decline in its smaller
leader spots and umbral redistribution within its larger trailer
spot group. Smaller region AR3912 (S04E39, beta-gamma) has shown
development in its trailer spots. All other sunspot regions are
either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be R0-R1
with a slight chance for an isolated R2 flare over 01-Dec to
02-Dec. A small equatorial coronal hole is visible at solar longitude
W30. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the past 24 hours.
A minor CME was observed to the southeast from 30/0336UT which
could not be correlated to on disk solar activity. A narrow southwest
directed CME was observed from 30/0600UT associated with narrow
plasma ejecta on the southwest solar limb. S0 solar radiation
storm conditions were observed on UT day 30-Nov. S0, with a chance
of S1 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 01-Dec
to 03-Dec. The solar wind environment on UT day 30-Nov was mildly
elevated and slightly variable. The solar wind speed ranged from
343 to 427 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 11 nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz)
was +9 to -8 nT. The IMF Bz component was mildly southward during
the interval 29/2230UT to 30/0440UT. The solar wind is expected
to be mildly elevated for today due to possible continued influences
from a weak coronal hole wind stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 30 Nov : A K
Australian Region 8 33212122
Cocos Island 4 32211010
Darwin 7 33202121
Townsville 8 33212122
Learmonth 9 43212122
Alice Springs 7 33202122
Gingin 8 43202022
Canberra 7 33202022
Kennaook Cape Grim 9 34212022
Hobart 10 34212222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Nov :
Macquarie Island 5 33200010
Casey 20 45522132
Mawson 19 54411143
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 1212 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Dec 12 G0
02 Dec 12 G0
03 Dec 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 30-Nov. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. A mild increase in geomagnetic activity
was observed during the interval 30/00-06UT with a single planetary
period of G1 observed 30/00-03UT in association with a period
of mildly southward IMF conditions, then geomagnetic activity
quickly declined. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over
01-03 Dec, with mildly elevated conditions due to a weak coronal
hole wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Nov Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 30-Nov were
fair to normal, with some degradations at high latitudes. HF
radio propagation conditions are expected to be mostly fair to
normal over 01-Dec to 03-Dec, with fair conditions at times for
high latitudes. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Nov 142
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 139
Nov 119
Dec 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Dec 130 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.
02 Dec 130 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
03 Dec 130 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 140 was issued on
29 November and is current for 29 Nov to 1 Dec. Maximum usable
frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 30-Nov
were mostly near predicted monthly values to 35% enhanced. Southern
Australian region MUFs were strongly enhanced after local dawn
this morning. Sporadic-E was observed at Brisbane, Hobart, Townsville
and Niue during local night hours. MUFs are now expected to be
near predicted values to 15% enhanced as recent mild geomagnetic
activity has declined. Mildly degraded HF conditions may be experienced
at times during local night hours for the southern Australian
region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Nov
Speed: 389 km/sec Density: 6.0 p/cc Temp: 79500 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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