[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 13 December 24 issued 2330 UT on 13 Dec 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat Dec 14 10:30:52 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 DECEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 DECEMBER - 16 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Dec: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 0318UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M2.1 1124UT possible lower European
M1.0 1424UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Dec: 164/118
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Dec 15 Dec 16 Dec
Activity R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 165/119 170/124
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 13-Oct was R1, with several
low level M-class flares. There are currently four numbered sunspots
on the solar disk. AR3924 (S20E03, beta) has shown some maturation,
and all other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay.
AR3917 (S08W60, beta-gamma-delta) remains the most complex spot
on the disk, and was responsible for the largest flare of the
day (M2). Solar activity is expected to be R0-R1 with a chance
for R2 over 14-16 Dec.
A CME was observed directed to the solar southwest from 13/0248 UT.
This event can be attributed to a filament eruption near AR3917,
but is not expected to be geoeffective. Another CME was observed
directed mostly south from 1448 UT but has been analysed as farside.
No other noteworthy CMEs were observed.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 13-Dec.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 14-16 Dec.
The solar wind environment on UT day 13-Dec was mostly stable.
The solar wind speed ranged between 316 and 352 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the
north-south IMF component range was +4 to -6 nT. A small coronal
hole in the solar northwest may enhance the solar wind from 14-15
Dec. but otherwise conditions are expected to be nominal.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 13 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 11112201
Cocos Island 1 10111100
Darwin 2 10111201
Townsville 4 11112211
Learmonth 3 11012201
Alice Springs 3 11112201
Gingin 3 11112201
Canberra 4 11112211
Kennaook Cape Grim 4 11112211
Hobart 4 11112211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Dec :
Macquarie Island 2 01011200
Casey 12 34332212
Mawson 9 12222333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 1100 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Dec 8 G0
15 Dec 12 G0, slight chance G1
16 Dec 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed on UT day 13-Dec
in the Australian and Antarctic regions. Mostly G0 geomagnetic
activity is expected over 14-16 Dec, with a slight chance for
G1 on 15-Dec due to the possibility of a coronal hole wind steam.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
16 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation was generally normal in the southern
hemisphere, but may have been depressed in the northern hemisphere
on UT day 13-Dec. HF radio propagation conditions are generally
expected to be normal over 14-16 Dec, with some mild degradations
during local night hours due to a possible coronal hole wind
stream. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Dec 151
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 127
Dec 117
Jan 114
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Dec 140 Near predicted monthly values
15 Dec 135 Near predicted monthly values
16 Dec 135 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 13-Dec were
near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced in the Australian
region. Sporadic-E was common during local night hours.MUFs are
expected to be near predicted monthly values over 14-16 Dec.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Dec
Speed: 351 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 82600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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