[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 29 August 24 issued 2330 UT on 29 Aug 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Aug 30 09:30:48 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 AUGUST 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 30 AUGUST - 01 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Aug: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Aug: 204/155
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Aug 31 Aug 01 Sep
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 210/161 220/170 215/165
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 29-Aug was at the R0 level,
with no significant flaring activity. There are currently seven
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered
region. AR3806 (S10E60, beta-delta) is the most magnetically
complex region on the disk and has shown recent spot growth.
AR3801 (N09W31, beta) has exhibited mild spot development over
the UT day. An unnumbered region recently appeared near S25E15
(beta) and has shown spot growth. All other sunspot regions are
either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at
R0-R1 levels over 30-Aug to 01-Sep. No Earth-directed CMEs have
been observed. Two small filament eruptions were observed near
N15W26, visible in H-Alpha imagery at 29/0049UT and 29/0612UT.
No CMEs have been observed in association with either of these
eruptions. The solar wind speed on UT day 29-Aug was mostly stable,
ranging from 275 to 340 km/s and is currently near 340 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 18
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +17 to -3
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain at background
levels over 30-Aug to 01-Sep.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 29 Aug : A K
Australian Region 2 11111001
Cocos Island 2 22111000
Darwin 3 12111102
Townsville 5 22122111
Learmonth 3 21112101
Alice Springs 2 12111001
Gingin 2 21111000
Canberra 1 11011001
Kennaook Cape Grim 1 11011001
Hobart 1 11011001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 01000000
Casey 6 33211012
Mawson 10 52112022
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 30
Planetary 26 5463 3223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Aug 10 G0
31 Aug 6 G0
01 Sep 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 29-Aug. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 30-Aug to 01-Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Aug Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
31 Aug Normal Normal Normal
01 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 29-Aug were
mostly normal, with fair conditions observed at high latitudes.
HF radio communication conditions are expected to be generally
normal over 30-Aug to 01-Sep. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Aug 160
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 131
Aug 119
Sep 119
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Aug 155 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
31 Aug 155 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
01 Sep 155 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 29-Aug were enhanced by 15-30%. Spread F was
observed at Hobart during local night hours. Ionospheric scintillation
was observed at Darwin from 29/1346-1403UT. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced over 30-Aug
to 01-Sep. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.10E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Aug
Speed: 311 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 35900 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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