[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 28 August 24 issued 2330 UT on 28 Aug 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Aug 29 09:30:49 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 AUGUST 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 29 AUGUST - 31 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Aug: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Aug: 212/163
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Aug 30 Aug 31 Aug
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 220/170 215/165 215/165
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 28-Aug was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares observed. There are currently eight
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and two unnumbered
regions. AR3799 (S09W23, beta-gamma) is the largest region on
the disk and has shown decay in its trailer spots. AR3800 (S27W37,
beta-gamma) has exhibited spot growth over the UT day, particularly
in its trailer spots. Newly numbered AR3806 (S12E60, beta) recently
rotated over the eastern limb and appears stable. Two unnumbered
regions are visible near S20E15 (beta) and N21E55 (beta). Both
unnumbered regions have shown spot growth since appearing on
the solar disk. All other sunspot regions are either stable or
in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over
29-31 Aug. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. An east-directed
CME was observed, visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery from
28/0448UT. This CME is associated with an on-the-limb prominence
eruption visible in GOES SUVI imagery from 28/0408UT. This CME
is not considered geoeffective. The solar wind speed on UT day
28-Aug mildly declined, ranging from 285 to 340 km/s and is currently
near 295 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 18 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+5 to -16 nT. A sustained period of southward IMF conditions
was observed from 27/1844-28/0839UT. The solar wind speed is
expected to remain at background levels over 29-31 Aug.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Aug: G1
Estimated Indices 28 Aug : A K
Australian Region 13 32523212
Cocos Island 8 32412111
Darwin 9 32412112
Townsville 14 33523122
Learmonth 15 42523222
Alice Springs 13 32513212
Gingin 13 32513222
Canberra 12 22523112
Kennaook Cape Grim 17 32623212
Hobart 13 32523212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Aug :
Macquarie Island 30 33744311
Casey 11 33323222
Mawson 32 65543242
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 22
Planetary 28
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 9 1122 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Aug 14 G0-G1
30 Aug 6 G0
31 Aug 6 G0
COMMENT: G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 28-Aug due to sustained periods of southward
IMF conditions following a CME arrival on 27-Aug. An isolated
period of G2 was observed at Kennaook Cape Grim. Mostly G0-G1
geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Antarctic region,
with an isolated period of G2 observed at Mawson and an isolated
period of G3 observed at Macquarie Island. G0-G1 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 29-Aug due to the ongoing elevated
solar wind conditions. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 30-31 Aug.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Aug Normal Normal Normal
31 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 28-Aug were
mostly normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected
to be generally normal over 29-31 Aug. Shortwave fadeouts are
possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Aug 159
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 131
Aug 119
Sep 119
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Aug 150 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
30 Aug 150 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
31 Aug 150 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 28-Aug were near predicted monthly values to
20% enhanced. Spread F was observed at Hobart during local night
hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to 15% enhanced over 29-31 Aug. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Aug
Speed: 312 km/sec Density: 8.2 p/cc Temp: 35200 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list