[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 27 August 24 issued 2330 UT on 27 Aug 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed Aug 28 09:30:53 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 AUGUST 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 28 AUGUST - 30 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Aug: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 0943UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Aug: 221/171
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Aug 29 Aug 30 Aug
Activity R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 225/175 230/180 235/185
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 27-Aug was at the R1 level
due to an M1.1 flare from solar region AR3796 (S04W51, beta).
This region is in decay. Solar region AR3800 (S27W29, beta-gamma-delta)
produced C class flares with the largest a C9.9 at 27/0810UT.
Solar region AR3801 (N09W03, beta) produced a low level C class
flare. Solar region AR3800 appears stable and AR3801 trailer
spots have redistributed and slightly grown. Solar region AR3790
has rotated off disk. The trailer spots of solar region AR3799
(S09W15, beta-gamma) which has been flare quiet and is currently
the largest on disk region have exhibited decay. There are currently
10 numbered regions on the solar disk. All other sunspot regions
are either stable or in decay. It appears that old solar region
AR3777 is returning to the eastern solar limb with plasma arches
and emission evident in SDO imagery at solar latitude S10. At
this stage only the edge of leader spots are visible. Solar activity
is expected to be at the R1, chance R2 level over 28-30 Aug.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions have been observed and S0
conditions are expected over 28-30 Aug. No Earth directed CMEs
have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 27-Aug was
slow and steady until a solar wind shock was observed at 27/0735UT.
This shock was a glancing blow arrival from a CME observed on
23-Aug. The solar wind speed ranged from 250 to 335 km/s and
is currently near 335 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 13 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +7 to -11 nT. The solar wind speed only mildly
increased from 250 km/sec to 316 km/sec across the solar wind
shock. The total IMF gradually became enhanced by up to 13 nT
post shock. The IMF Bz component was mildly southward during
the interval 27/1045-1217UT. From 27/1844UT the IMF Bz component
has become increasingly southward and is currently at -12 nT.
A small coronal hole with centre located at S00W18 may slightly
increase the solar wind speed on 29-Aug. Another larger coronal
hole is visible in the southeast solar quadrant centred at S20E15.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 27 Aug : A K
Australian Region 7 11322222
Cocos Island 6 11321222
Darwin 6 11322212
Townsville 10 11423322
Learmonth 8 10422222
Alice Springs 8 11322322
Gingin 8 11312233
Canberra 6 01313212
Kennaook Cape Grim 7 00313312
Hobart 6 10213312
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Aug :
Macquarie Island 5 00114211
Casey 7 12322222
Mawson 12 31212225
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 2101 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Aug 18 G1 early in the UT day then G0
29 Aug 8 G0
30 Aug 6 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 47 was issued on 27 August
and is current for 28 Aug only. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian and Antarctic region on UT day 27-Aug.
A weak (11nT) impulse was observed at 27/0842UT due to a glancing
blow CME arrival. G1 conditions are expected early in the UT
day on 28-Aug due to current southward IMF conditions. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are generally expected over 29-30 Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Aug Normal Normal Fair-normal
29 Aug Normal Normal Normal
30 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 27-Aug were
fair to normal, with fair conditions observed at high latitudes.
HF radio communication conditions are expected to be generally
normal over 28-30 Aug. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Aug 153
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15-25%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 131
Aug 119
Sep 119
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Aug 145 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
29 Aug 145 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
30 Aug 145 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 95 was issued on
26 August and is current for 26-28 Aug. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 27-Aug were near predicted
monthly values to 25% enhanced. Strong enhancements were observed
at Cocos Island and Niue during local night hours. Spread F was
observed during local night hours at Hobart and Perth. Ionospheric
scintillation was observed 27/0738-0840UT at Niue. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced over 28-30
Aug. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Aug
Speed: 291 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 19200 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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