[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 26 August 24 issued 2330 UT on 26 Aug 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Tue Aug 27 09:30:50 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 AUGUST 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 27 AUGUST - 29 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Aug: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.4 1141UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Aug: 232/182
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Aug 28 Aug 29 Aug
Activity R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 230/180 235/185 242/191
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 26-Aug was at the R1 level
due to an M1.4 flare from solar region AR3796 (S04W37, beta-gamma-delta).
The intermediate spots of region AR3796 have exhibited both growth
and decay. The trailer spots of solar regions AR3790 (S13W72,
beta) and AR3799 (S09W02, beta) are both declining. Solar region
AR3800 (S27W16, beta-gamma-delta) and AR3801 (N09E10, beta) are
both developing. There are currently ten numbered sunspot regions
visible on the solar disk. All other sunspot regions are either
stable or in decay. A channel of plasma emission/motion was observed
in SDO 304 imagery located from S45E25 to S10E05 from 26/1718UT.
In GOES SUVI 195 imagery this activity appears to connect in
an arch to location S35E60 visible at 26/1828UT. However, no
solar filament eruption in GONG H-alpha imagery could be identified
in the southeast solar quadrant. South polar limb prominence
activity was also observed in GOES SUVI 304 imagery 26/1200-1300UT.
Solar activity is expected to be at the R1, chance R2 level over
27-29 Aug. No significantly Earth directed CMEs have been observed.
A coronal streamer erupted from 26/1325UT with a bright slow
southward out of the ecliptic plane directed CME. The on disk
plasma arch motion appeared to have occurred after this CME began
erupting. Event modelling of this slow streamer CME was conducted
assuming a southeast disk location and shows an Earth miss. The
solar wind speed on UT day 26-Aug slowly declined, ranging from
260 to 325 km/s and is currently near 260 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 5 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +2 to -4 nT. The solar wind speed
is expected to mildly increase on 27-Aug due to the arrival of
a CME first observed on 23-Aug. Old solar region AR3777 which
previously produced isolated R2 and R3 level flare activity is
due to return to the southeast solar limb (solar latitude S09)
on 27-Aug. However, this region was rapidly declining in area
as it approached the western solar limb on its previous rotation.
A small coronal hole with centre located at S05W15 may slightly
increase the solar wind speed on 29-Aug.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 26 Aug : A K
Australian Region 1 11101100
Cocos Island 2 21110000
Darwin 2 12101101
Townsville 4 21102112
Learmonth 1 11001100
Alice Springs 1 01101101
Gingin 2 11102200
Canberra 1 10002100
Kennaook Cape Grim 2 11012200
Hobart 2 11012200
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Aug :
Macquarie Island 4 00033200
Casey 4 23200100
Mawson 7 32111223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 6 2221 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Aug 16 G0, chance G1
28 Aug 10 G0
29 Aug 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic region on UT day 26-Aug. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 27-29 Aug, with a chance of G1 on 27-Aug due
to the arrival of a CME first observed on 23-Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Aug Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
28 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 26-Aug were
normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected to be
generally normal over 27-29 Aug, with fair conditions at high
latitudes on 27-Aug. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Aug 152
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 115% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15%.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15-20%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 131
Aug 119
Sep 119
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Aug 145 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
28 Aug 145 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
29 Aug 145 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 95 was issued on
26 August and is current for 26-28 Aug. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 26-Aug were near predicted
monthly values to 15% enhanced. Very strong enhancements were
observed at Cocos Island during local night hours. Spread F was
observed during local night hours at Hobart. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced over 27-29
Aug. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Aug
Speed: 344 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 47300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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