[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 25 August 24 issued 2330 UT on 25 Aug 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Aug 26 09:30:48 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 AUGUST 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 26 AUGUST - 28 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Aug: R0
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.7 24/2324UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Aug: 233/183
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Aug 27 Aug 28 Aug
Activity R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 235/185 230/180 230/180
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 25-Aug was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares observed. There are currently nine
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and two unnumbered
regions. AR3790 (S13W60, beta-delta) is the largest and most
magnetically complex region on the disk and has shown some decay
in its trailer spots. AR3800 (S27W05, beta) has shown spot growth,
particularly in its leader spot. AR3801 (N09E22, beta) has shown
mild growth in its intermediate spots. Newly numbered AR3802
(N13W34, beta) has exhibited mild spot growth over the UT day.
Two unnumbered regions recently rotated over the eastern limb
near N15E80 (alpha) and S25E80 (alpha). Both unnumbered regions
appear stable. All other sunspot regions are either stable or
in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R1 level over
26-28 Aug, with a chance of R2. Several CMEs were observed, but
none are considered geoeffective. The solar wind speed on UT
day 25-Aug decreased, ranging from 320 to 375 km/s and is currently
near 325 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 5 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+4 to -5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain at background
levels on 26-Aug before mildly increasing on 27-Aug due to the
arrival of a CME first observed on 23-Aug.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 25 Aug : A K
Australian Region 2 12210001
Cocos Island 3 22210000
Darwin 2 12210001
Townsville 3 12210012
Learmonth 3 22210001
Alice Springs 2 12200001
Gingin 3 22200011
Canberra 2 12210001
Kennaook Cape Grim 2 12200011
Hobart 2 12200011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Aug :
Macquarie Island 3 12310010
Casey 7 24311011
Mawson 14 35321104
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12 2234 3322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Aug 6 G0
27 Aug 16 G0, chance of G1
28 Aug 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 25-Aug. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 26-28 Aug, with a chance of G1 on 27-Aug due to the arrival
of a CME first observed on 23-Aug.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Aug Normal Normal Normal
27 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
28 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 25-Aug were
normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected to be
generally normal over 26-28 Aug, with fair conditions at high
latitudes on 27-Aug. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Aug 150
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 80% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 131
Aug 119
Sep 119
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Aug 145 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
27 Aug 145 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
28 Aug 145 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 25-Aug were near predicted monthly values to
15% enhanced. Spread F was observed at Hobart during local night
hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to 15% enhanced over 26-28 Aug. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Aug
Speed: 377 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 59400 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list