[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 24 August 24 issued 2335 UT on 24 Aug 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Aug 25 09:35:18 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 AUGUST 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 25 AUGUST - 27 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Aug: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.6 0014UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.0 1858UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.4 1930UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.4 2146UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.7 2324UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Aug: 232/182
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Aug 26 Aug 27 Aug
Activity R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 240/189 245/195 245/195
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 24-Aug was at the R1 level
due to five low level M-class flares, the largest of which was
an M1.7 flare at 24/2324UT produced by AR3800 (S27E09, beta).
There are currently eight numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk and two unnumbered regions. AR3796 (S04W11, beta-gamma)
is the most magnetically complex region on the disk and has shown
decay over the UT day, particularly in its intermediate spots.
AR3792 (S17W30, beta) has shown mild growth in its trailer spots.
AR3800 has shown recent growth in its intermediate spots. AR3799
(S09E24, beta) has exhibited growth in its trailer spots. Two
unnumbered regions are visible near N21E45 (alpha) and N28W27
(alpha), both of which are in decay. All other sunspot regions
are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to
be at the R1 level over 25-27 Aug, with a chance of R2. No Earth-directed
CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 24-Aug
mildly increased, ranging from 335 to 390 km/s and is currently
near 370 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 9 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+5 to -7 nT. A sustained period of mild southward IMF conditions
was observed from 24/0534-1454UT. The solar wind speed is expected
to remain near background levels over 25-26 Aug before mildly
increasing on 27-Aug due to the arrival of a CME first observed
on 23-Aug.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 24 Aug : A K
Australian Region 9 22331312
Cocos Island 6 -3221211
Darwin 6 22221212
Townsville 9 22331322
Learmonth 7 22221312
Alice Springs 5 22221211
Gingin 11 22331422
Canberra 9 12332312
Kennaook Cape Grim 9 12332322
Hobart 9 12332322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Aug :
Macquarie Island 16 12453411
Casey 9 33321212
Mawson 22 44432335
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 3131 3122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Aug 8 G0
26 Aug 6 G0
27 Aug 16 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 24-Aug. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with isolated periods of G1
observed at Macquarie Island and Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 25-27 Aug, with a chance of G1 on 27-Aug due
to the arrival of a CME first observed on 23-Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Aug Normal Normal Normal
27 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 24-Aug were
normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected to be
generally normal over 25-27 Aug, with fair conditions at high
latitudes on 27-Aug. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Aug 162
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 70% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 131
Aug 119
Sep 119
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Aug 155 15 to 25% above predicted monthly values
26 Aug 155 15 to 25% above predicted monthly values
27 Aug 155 15 to 25% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 24-Aug were near predicted monthly values to
20-25% enhanced. Spread F was observed at Hobart during local
night hours. MUFs are expected to be 15-25% enhanced over 25-27
Aug. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Aug
Speed: 352 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 92600 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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