[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 23 August 24 issued 2330 UT on 23 Aug 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat Aug 24 09:30:47 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 AUGUST 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 24 AUGUST - 26 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Aug: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.4 0341UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.0 0418UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.7 1357UT possible lower European
M1.7 1505UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.1 1642UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.1 1933UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M3.4 1944UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M5.1 2012UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Aug: 242/191
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Aug 25 Aug 26 Aug
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 245/195 250/200 260/210
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 23-Aug was at the R2 level
due to an M5.1 flare at 23/2012UT produced by AR3800 (S27E28,
beta-gamma-delta). Several flares at the R1 level were also observed
over the UT day. There are currently nine numbered sunspot regions
visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered region. AR3800 is
the most magnetically complex region on the disk and has exhibited
spot development over the UT day. AR3796 (S04E09, beta-gamma)
has shown growth in its intermediate spots. AR3792 (S17W10, beta)
and AR3799 (S09E44, beta) have both shown mild spot growth. AR3801
(N09E56, beta) has exhibited spot development over the 24-hour
period. An unnumbered region recently appeared near N23E56 (beta)
and has shown spot growth. All other sunspot regions are either
stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2
levels over 24-26 Aug. A filament eruption was observed, visible
in H-alpha imagery at 23/0051UT near N18W31. A subsequent west-directed
CME was observed in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery from 23/0200UT.
Modelling indicates this low velocity CME is Earth-directed,
with an estimated arrival at Earth on 27-Aug at 0100UT +/- 12
hours. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The solar
wind speed on UT day 23-Aug was mostly stable, ranging from 325
to 385 km/s and is currently near 355 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 12 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +8 to -10 nT. A sustained period of mild southward
IMF conditions was observed from 23/0331-0727UT. The solar wind
speed is expected to remain near background levels over 24-26
Aug.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 23 Aug : A K
Australian Region 3 12211011
Cocos Island 4 22211011
Darwin 3 12210012
Townsville 4 12211012
Learmonth 4 22211011
Alice Springs 4 12211012
Gingin 5 22211121
Canberra 3 12211011
Kennaook Cape Grim 4 12212011
Hobart 4 12212011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Aug :
Macquarie Island 4 01303000
Casey 9 34321021
Mawson 15 33431243
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 10 3322 2323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Aug 12 G0
25 Aug 8 G0
26 Aug 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in both the
Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 23-Aug. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 24-26 Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 23-Aug were
normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected to be
generally normal over 24-26 Aug. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Aug 158
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 131
Aug 119
Sep 119
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Aug 155 15 to 25% above predicted monthly values
25 Aug 155 15 to 25% above predicted monthly values
26 Aug 155 15 to 25% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 94 was issued on
22 August and is current for 22-24 Aug. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 23-Aug were 15-30%
enhanced. Spread F was observed at Hobart during local night
hours. MUFs are expected to be 15-25% enhanced over 24-26 Aug.
Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.30E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Aug
Speed: 344 km/sec Density: 4.7 p/cc Temp: 56100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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