[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 22 August 24 issued 2330 UT on 22 Aug 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Aug 23 09:30:47 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 AUGUST 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 23 AUGUST - 25 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Aug: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.5 1039UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Aug: 231/181
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Aug 24 Aug 25 Aug
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 230/180 235/185 240/189
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 22-Aug was at the R1 level
due to a M1.5 flare from solar region AR3796 (S13E16, beta).
Solar region AR3796 now appears a more open configuration with
penumbral development around its trailer spots. Region AR3790
(S11W17, beta), currently the largest region on the solar disk
has been flare quiet and mostly stable with penumbral growth
on its intermediate spots. Minor growth is evident in the trailer
spots of solar region AR3794 (N19W26, beta) and the small spots
around the large spot of AR3792 (S17W03, beta) are declining.
Solar region AR3799 (S10E54, beta) is growing and produced a
C5.7 flare at 22/1259UT. New solar region AR3801 (N08E70, beta)
produce a C7.8 flare at 22/1528UT. There are currently ten numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be at the R1-R2 level over 23-25 Aug. No Earth directed CMEs
have been observed. Yesterday's M5.1 flare late in the UT day
did not appear to be associated with a significant CME, with
a non Earth directed narrow northeast CME possibly associated
with this flare. There was a data gap in LASCO C2 imagery 21/2336-22/0736UT.
A large CME was observed off the northwest solar limb 22/0736UT
following an eruptive prominence observed in GOES SUVI imagery
22/0640-0716UT at solar latitude N60-N80. This CME is directed
out of the ecliptic plane and ahead of the Earth. A second northwest
limb CME was observed from 22/1100UT. A narrow east directed,
away from the Earth, CME was observed from 22/1012UT. The solar
wind speed on UT day 22-Aug slightly increased, ranging from
325 to 380 km/s and is currently near 380 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 11 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +9 to -7 nT. The mild solar wind
speed increase is considered to be due to a weak coronal hole
wind stream influence.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 22 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 22120111
Cocos Island 3 22110111
Darwin 3 22110111
Townsville 5 22121122
Learmonth 4 22120211
Alice Springs 3 22110111
Gingin 4 22220111
Canberra 3 12210111
Kennaook Cape Grim 4 12221111
Hobart 5 22221111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Aug :
Macquarie Island 4 02322100
Casey 7 33221111
Mawson 25 54532215
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 3221 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Aug 6 G0
24 Aug 12 G0
25 Aug 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 22-Aug. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with isolated periods of G1
observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over
23-25 Aug. There is a slight chance for a mild increase in geomagnetic
activity on 24-Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Aug Normal Normal Normal
24 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 22-Aug were
normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected to be
generally normal over 23-25 Aug. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Aug 155
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 131
Aug 119
Sep 119
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Aug 160 15 to 25% above predicted monthly values
24 Aug 160 15 to 25% above predicted monthly values
25 Aug 160 15 to 25% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 94 was issued on
22 August and is current for 22-24 Aug. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 22-Aug were 15-25%
enhanced. Ionospheric scintillation was observed at Niue during
the interval 22/0959-1020UT. MUFs are expected to be 15-25% enhanced
over 23-25 Aug. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Aug
Speed: 322 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 45500 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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