[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 30 August 24 issued 2330 UT on 30 Aug 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat Aug 31 09:30:52 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 AUGUST 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 31 AUGUST - 02 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Aug: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.2 0206UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M3.8 1220UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Aug: 214/165
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Aug 01 Sep 02 Sep
Activity R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 215/165 215/165 220/170
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 30-Aug was at the R1 level,
with solar region AR3806 (S11E49, beta-gamma) producing both
the M1.2 and M3.8 flares. Solar regions AR3807 (S17W00, beta-gamma)
and AR3803 (N15E12, beta) produced C class flares. Solar region
AR3807 is rapidly growing and AR3806 is also growing. There are
currently nine numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar
disk. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay.
Solar activity is expected to be at R1, chance R2 level over
31-Aug to 02-Sep. S0 solar radiation storm conditions have been
observed and S0 conditions are expected for 31-Aug to 02-Sep.
No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. Non Earth directed
CMEs were observed to the north and east. The solar wind speed
on UT day 29-Aug initially increased then decreased, ranging
from 341 to 430 km/s and is currently near 350 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 20 nT and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +18 to -14 nT. Two periods
of southward IMF conditions were observed 30/1008-1345UT and
30/1523-2015UT. The mildly enhanced solar wind state may be due
to both declining CME effects and weak coronal hole wind stream
influences. The solar wind speed is expected to be mildly enhanced
today. Old solar region 3780 which produced an R3 flare on its
previous disk transit appears to be returning to the southeast
solar limb at solar latitude S08-10. On its previous transit this
region was initially quite large in area, then showed a decline
in area as it approached the western limb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 30 Aug : A K
Australian Region 14 21433333
Cocos Island 16 22433343
Darwin 13 22433332
Townsville 18 -2533333
Learmonth 18 22533343
Alice Springs 14 21433333
Gingin 19 21433354
Canberra 14 21433333
Kennaook Cape Grim 16 11434433
Hobart 15 11434333
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Aug :
Macquarie Island 18 00245443
Casey 18 34542222
Mawson 12 22333332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 2111 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Aug 8 G0
01 Sep 6 G0
02 Sep 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 30-Aug. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with isolated periods of
G1 observed at Macquarie Island and Casey. Geomagnetic activity
was mildly elevated due to periods of southward IMF conditions.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 31-Aug to 02-Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Aug Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Sep Normal Normal Normal
02 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 30-Aug were
mostly normal, with fair conditions observed at high latitudes.
HF radio communication conditions are expected to be generally
normal over 31-Aug to 02-Sep. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Aug 160
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25%.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15-35%
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 131
Aug 119
Sep 119
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Aug 155 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
01 Sep 155 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
02 Sep 155 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 30-Aug were enhanced by 15-35%. Spread F was
observed at Hobart during local night hours. Ionospheric scintillation
was observed at Niue from 30/0948-1019UT. MUFs are expected to
be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced over 31-Aug
to 02-Sep. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Aug
Speed: 302 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 54600 K Bz: 8 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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