[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 19 August 24 issued 2330 UT on 19 Aug 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Tue Aug 20 09:30:47 AEST 2024

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 AUGUST 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 20 AUGUST - 22 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Aug:  R1

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.4    0000UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M1.3    0936UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M3.7    2152UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Aug: 239/188

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Aug             21 Aug             22 Aug
Activity     R1, chance R2      R1, chance R2      R1, chance R2
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   240/189            245/195            240/189

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 19-Aug was at the R1 level 
due to multiple low level M-class flares, the largest of which 
was an M3.7 flare at 19/2152UT produced by AR3796 (S04E56, beta-delta). 
There are currently eleven numbered sunspot regions visible on 
the solar disk. AR3796 is the most magnetically complex region 
on the disk and showed mild growth over the UT day. AR3785 (S12W58, 
beta) showed mild growth in its trailer spots. AR3792 (S17E36, 
beta) developed a trailer spot late in the UT day. AR3789 (N26W35, 
beta), AR3797 (S05W24, beta) and AR3794 (N19E07, beta) all exhibited 
spot growth over the 24-hour period. AR3790 (S13E20, beta-gamma) 
showed spot development in its intermediate spots. Newly numbered 
AR3798 (N06E75, alpha) recently rotated over the eastern limb 
and is stable. All other sunspot regions are either stable or 
in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R1 level over 
20-22 Aug, with a chance of R2. No Earth-directed CMEs have been 
observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 19-Aug was mostly stable, 
ranging from 365 to 440 km/s and is currently near 365 km/s. 
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +8 to -7 
nT. A sustained period of mild southward IMF conditions was observed 
from 19/1546-2219UT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain 
near background levels on 20-Aug, then may mildly increase over 
21-22 Aug due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Aug: G0

Estimated Indices 19 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   12113122
      Cocos Island         5   12122121
      Darwin               5   12112122
      Townsville           7   22223122
      Learmonth            6   12123122
      Alice Springs        5   12112122
      Gingin               5   11113122
      Canberra             5   02013122
      Kennaook Cape Grim   5   11113122
      Hobart               5   11013122    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     6   11004222
      Casey               10   24232222
      Mawson              20   12222265

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             15   3333 4233     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Aug     8    G0
21 Aug     6    G0
22 Aug     6    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 19-Aug. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were 
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of 
G2 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected 
over 20-22 Aug.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
21 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 19-Aug were 
normal. Spread F was observed at middle latitudes during local 
night hours. HF radio communication conditions are expected to 
be generally normal over 20-22 Aug. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
19 Aug   160

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 105% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 75% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night and after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      131
Aug      119
Sep      119

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Aug   160    15 to 25% above predicted monthly values
21 Aug   160    15 to 25% above predicted monthly values
22 Aug   160    15 to 25% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 93 was issued on 
18 August and is current for 18-20 Aug. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 19-Aug were near predicted 
monthly values to 25% enhanced. Spread F was observed at Hobart 
during local night hours. Ionospheric scintillation was observed 
at Niue and Weipa during the interval 19/0718-1120UT. MUFs are 
expected to be 15-25% enhanced over 20-22 Aug. Shortwave fadeouts 
are possible.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.00E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C3.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Aug
Speed: 429 km/sec  Density:    9.6 p/cc  Temp:    62500 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au