[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 20 August 24 issued 2330 UT on 20 Aug 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed Aug 21 09:30:49 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 AUGUST 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 21 AUGUST - 23 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Aug: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 19/2311UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.2 0448UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.3 1708UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Aug: 244/193
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Aug 22 Aug 23 Aug
Activity R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 245/195 240/189 240/189
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 20-Aug was at the R1 level
due to two M-class flares, the largest of which was an M1.3 flare
at 20/1708UT produced by AR3785 (S12W73, beta). There are currently
eleven numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and
one unnumbered region. AR3790 (S13E06, beta-gamma-delta) is the
most magnetically complex region on the disk and has exhibited
spot development over the UT day. AR3784 (N16W83) appears stable
and will soon rotate over the western limb. AR3794 (N17W05, beta)
has shown spot growth. AR3796 (S04E45, beta-delta) has shown
spot development over the 24-hour period. An unnumbered region
recently rotated over the eastern limb near S08E79 (alpha) and
is stable. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in
decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R1 level over
21-23 Aug, with a chance of R2. Several CMEs were observed, but
none are considered geoeffective. A filament eruption was observed,
visible in H-alpha imagery at 20/1638UT near N16E11. No significant
CME has been observed associated with this eruption. The solar
wind speed on UT day 19-Aug mildly declined, ranging from 295
to 375 km/s and is currently near 325 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +5 to -6 nT. A sustained period of mild southward
IMF conditions was observed from 20/0835-1229UT. The solar wind
speed may mildly increase over 21-23 Aug due to coronal hole
high speed wind stream effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 20 Aug : A K
Australian Region 6 22221221
Cocos Island 5 22212210
Darwin 5 22211212
Townsville 6 22221222
Learmonth 5 21222220
Alice Springs 5 22211212
Gingin 5 22212220
Canberra 6 22221221
Kennaook Cape Grim 7 12222321
Hobart 6 22221221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Aug :
Macquarie Island 10 22243320
Casey 7 23222221
Mawson 21 34323534
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 10 2102 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Aug 6 G0
22 Aug 6 G0
23 Aug 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 20-Aug. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 21-23 Aug.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Aug Normal Normal Normal
22 Aug Normal Normal Normal
23 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 20-Aug were
normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected to be
generally normal over 21-23 Aug. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Aug 172
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 80% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day and after local dawn.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15-25% during local day and after local dawn.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day and after local dawn.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 131
Aug 119
Sep 119
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Aug 170 15 to 35% above predicted monthly values
22 Aug 170 15 to 35% above predicted monthly values
23 Aug 170 15 to 35% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 20-Aug were 15-45% enhanced. Ionospheric scintillation
was observed at Darwin and Weipa during the interval 20/1110-1523UT.
MUFs are expected to be 15-35% enhanced over 21-23 Aug. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.20E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Aug
Speed: 388 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 93500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list