[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 18 August 24 issued 2330 UT on 18 Aug 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Aug 19 09:30:46 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 AUGUST 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 19 AUGUST - 21 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Aug: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.4 0204UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.1 0416UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.2 0731UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.3 2108UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Aug: 231/181
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Aug 20 Aug 21 Aug
Activity R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 225/175 225/175 215/165
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 18-Aug was at the R1 level.
Solar region AR3784 (N15W59, beta-gamma-delta) produced two M1
class flares and an M2 class flare and is currently the largest
of the on disk regions. Solar region AR3784 has shown growth
and decay and redistribution of its surrounding small spots.
Solar region AR3796 (S04E77, beta-gamma) produced an M1 class
flare late in the UT day and is a relatively small growing region
of moderate magnetic complexity. This region could be the return
of old flare active region AR3766 but appears smaller at the
start of this solar disk transit. Smaller solar region AR3794
(N19E20, beta-gamma-delta) is rapidly growing and solar region
AR3790 (S13E34, beta-gamma-delta) is also growing with intermediate
spot development evident. A small thin solar filament located
at S05W03 erupted at 18/2012UT but is not considered significant.
A channel of emission located at N10W50 to N30W50 was observed
18/1038-1053UT in SDO304 imagery north of solar region AR3784.
There are currently ten numbered sunspot regions visible on the
solar disk. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in
decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R1, chance R2 levels
over 19-21 Aug. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. A
narrow northwest and slow CME was observed from 18/1400UT (though
the start of this CME was difficult to determine due to alignment
with the base of coronal streamers) and a southwest CME was observed
from 18/1527UT. Neither of these CMEs could be correlated to
on disk activity. The channel of emission to the north of AR3784
did not time correlate to either of these CMEs. The solar wind
speed on UT day 18-Aug declined. The solar wind speed ranged
from 380 to 472 km/s and is currently near 380 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 20 nT and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +18 to -8 nT. The IMF
Bt was briefly enhanced to 21 nT at approximately 18/0831UT and
is now at 8 nT. The IMF Bz briefly dipped to -8nT at approximately
18/0838UT and is currently near neutral. A small isolated equatorial
coronal hole is currently transiting the solar central meridian
at solar latitude N15. This hole may have a slight influence
on solar wind speed during 21-22 Aug. A larger coronal hole centred
at S40W20 is considered unlikely to significantly influence the
solar wind due to its moderately high solar latitude.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 18 Aug : A K
Australian Region 9 23332122
Cocos Island 10 23333121
Darwin 11 23333222
Townsville 12 23343222
Learmonth 13 23343132
Alice Springs 10 23332222
Gingin 10 23332132
Canberra 8 13232222
Kennaook Cape Grim 8 23232122
Hobart 9 23332122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Aug :
Macquarie Island 8 22242111
Casey 9 23331122
Mawson 15 23332153
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 8 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 24
Planetary 47 1112 3866
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Aug 8 G0
20 Aug 7 G0
21 Aug 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic region on UT day 18-Aug. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected 19-21 Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Aug Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Aug Normal Normal Normal
21 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 18-Aug were
fair to normal. Spread F was observed on middle latitude ionograms
during local night hours and range spread was observed at equatorial
Niue at 18/1300UT, 18/1500-1700UT. HF radio communication conditions
are expected to be generally normal for 19-21 Aug. Isolated shortwave
fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Aug 181
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 85% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25-35%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 131
Aug 119
Sep 119
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Aug 160 15 to 25% above predicted monthly values
20 Aug 160 15 to 25% above predicted monthly values
21 Aug 160 15 to 25% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 93 was issued on
18 August and is current for 18-20 Aug. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 18-Aug were near predicted
monthly values to 35% enhanced. Strong local night enhancements
were observed at Niue and Cocos Island. Spread F was observed
at Hobart during local night hours. Range spread was observed
at Niue at 18/1300UT and 18/1500-1700UT. Ionospheric scintillation
was observed at Niue and Weipa during the interval 18/1015-1120UT.
MUFs are expected to be 15-25% enhanced over 19-21 Aug. Isolated
shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C3.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Aug
Speed: 337 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 61400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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