[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 17 August 24 issued 2333 UT on 17 Aug 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Aug 18 09:33:46 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 AUGUST 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 18 AUGUST - 20 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Aug: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.6 1033UT possible lower European
M1.1 1144UT possible lower European
M1.1 2153UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Aug: 230/180
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Aug 19 Aug 20 Aug
Activity R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 220/170 215/165 215/165
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 17-Aug was at the R1 level
due to M1 class flares from solar region AR3784 (N15W39, beta-gamma-delta)
and AR3785 (S12W24, beta-gamma). The M1 flare from AR3784 was
associated with small localised plasma motion. Solar region AR3784
is the largest of the on disk regions and is showing development
in a number of small surrounding spots. Solar region AR3790 (S13E54,
beta) is showing development in its intermediate spots and smaller
solar region AR3785 is showing slight growth. Two new small solar
regions in the northeast solar quadrant are currently growing.
There are currently ten numbered sunspot regions visible on the
solar disk. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in
decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R1, chance R2 levels
over 18-20 Aug. No significantly Earth-directed CMEs have been
observed. A narrow north directed, out of the ecliptic plane,
CME was observed from 17/1036UT. A very narrow northwest directed
CME was observed from 17/1136UT, which may be associated with
the local plasma motion near AR3784 but is not considered significant.
A west directed CME was observed from 17/1912UT most likely associated
with western limb plasma spray activity (SDO304) from AR3780
just over the western solar limb. The solar wind speed on UT
day 17-Aug was initially slow and steady until a weak shock was
observed at 17/1330UT and a possible secondary weak shock at
17/1624UT. The solar wind speed ranged from 316 to 486 km/s and
is currently near 440 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 25 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +22 to -21 nT. The IMF Bt became enhanced post
shock arrival and the IMF Bz component was southward during the
interval 17/1341-1701UT. The IMF Bt is currently moderately enhanced
at 14 nT and the IMF Bz component is now orientated northwards.
Old solar region AR3766 which previously produced R1-R3 flares
appears to be returning to the eastern solar limb at solar latitude
S04 just south of the solar equator. The M1 flare observed toward
the end of the UT day appears to be either from this region on
the eastern solar limb or from on disk AR3790 due to near simultaneous
flare activity (GOES SUVI 094).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Aug: G1
Estimated Indices 17 Aug : A K
Australian Region 13 11203533
Cocos Island 13 11113533
Darwin 15 21204533
Townsville 16 11204534
Learmonth 15 21214533
Alice Springs 14 11204533
Gingin 12 11203434
Canberra 10 11103433
Kennaook Cape Grim 10 11103433
Hobart 13 11203533
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Aug :
Macquarie Island 16 00112643
Casey 16 33312353
Mawson 28 12315546
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Aug :
Darwin 10 (Quiet)
Townsville 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Learmonth 10 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 18 (Quiet)
Gingin 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 59 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 10 3322 3212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Aug 13 G0, chance G1 early in UT day
19 Aug 8 G0
20 Aug 7 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 46 was issued on 17 August
and is current for 17-18 Aug. G1 geomagnetic conditions (G3 planetary)
were briefly observed in the Australian region on UT day 17-Aug.
G1-G2 conditions were briefly observed in the Antarctic
region. A weak (16nT) impulse was observed at 17/1425UT and a
possible secondary weak (24nT) impulse was observed at 17/1726UT.
This activity was associated with a CME arrival which was earlier
than expected. G0 geomagnetic conditions are now generally expected
18-20 Aug, with a slight chance of a G1 period early in the UT
day on 18-Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Aug Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
19 Aug Normal Normal Normal
20 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 17-Aug were
degraded at times for middle to high latitudes due to brief geomagnetic
activity. HF radio communication conditions are expected to be
generally normal over 18-20 Aug, with fair conditions at mid
to high latitudes early in the UT day on 18-Aug. Isolated shortwave
fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Aug 158
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 100% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 131
Aug 119
Sep 119
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Aug 160 15 to 25% above predicted monthly values
19 Aug 160 15 to 25% above predicted monthly values
20 Aug 160 15 to 25% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 17-Aug were near predicted monthly values to
25% enhanced. Mildly degraded conditions may have been experienced
during local night hours last night due to a brief increase in
geomagnetic activity associated with an earlier than expected
CME arrival. Ionospheric scintillation was observed at Darwin
and Weipa during the interval 17/1120-1244UT. MUFs are now expected
to remain 15-25% enhanced over 18-20 Aug. Isolated shortwave
fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Aug
Speed: 350 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 41200 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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