[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 16 August 24 issued 2330 UT on 16 Aug 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat Aug 17 09:30:53 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 AUGUST 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 17 AUGUST - 19 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Aug: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.3 1324UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Aug: 225/175
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Aug 18 Aug 19 Aug
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 225/175 220/170 215/165
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 16-Aug was at the R1 level
due to an M1 class flare from AR3780 (S12W90, beta). This region
has rotated off the visible solar disk. Solar region AR3784 (N15W31,
beta-delta) which produced the recent X1 flare has been relatively
quiet and is currently the largest and most magnetically complex
solar region. This region has shown both growth and decay in
surrounding small spots. Solar region AR3790 (S07E57, beta) is
growing and produced C class flare activity, the largest a C8.1
at 16/1541UT. Small solar regions AR3789 (N28E05, beta) and AR3785
(S13W19, beta) are also growing. There are currently eleven numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be at R1-R2 levels over 17-19 Aug, with an isolated R2 flare
possible from AR3784. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed.
A narrow northwest directed CME was observed from 16/1336UT which
could not be correlated with on disk activity. A narrow southwest
directed CME was observed from 16/1400UT, which may be associated
with the M1.3 flare from AR3780 located just over the southwest
solar limb. A very narrow north directed CME was observed from
16/1448UT which appears correlated to on disk plasma motion near
AR3789. The solar wind speed on UT day 16-Aug was steady, ranging
from 310 to 376 km/s and is currently near 326 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +6 to -6 nT. The IMF
Bz component was mildly southward during the interval 16/00-0949UT.
The solar wind speed may increase over 17-18 Aug due to the combined
effects of a coronal hole high speed wind stream from a northern
hemisphere coronal hole and a weak CME arrival on 18-Aug from
a CME first observed on 14-Aug.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 16 Aug : A K
Australian Region 7 22233201
Cocos Island 4 22122200
Darwin 7 22223202
Townsville 7 22223202
Learmonth 7 22233201
Alice Springs 7 22223202
Gingin 7 22233200
Canberra 6 12233101
Kennaook Cape Grim 7 12233201
Hobart 6 12233101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Aug :
Macquarie Island 9 11244101
Casey 6 33212100
Mawson 17 54422311
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 2111 2213
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Aug 15 G0, chance G1 late in UT day
18 Aug 25 G1, chance G2 first half of UT day
19 Aug 13 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 45 was issued on 16 August
and is current for 17-18 Aug. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 16-Aug. Generally
G0 conditions were observed in the Antarctic region, with an
isolated period of G1 at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are
initially expected on 17-Aug, with the chance of a G1 period
late in the UT day. G1 conditions with a chance of an isolated
G2 period are expected early in the UT day on 18-Aug. The forecast
increase in geomagnetic activity is due to the anticipated arrival
of a CME associated with an X1.1 flare first observed on 14-Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Aug Normal Fair Fair
19 Aug Normal Fair-normal Fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 16-Aug were
normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected to be
normal over 17-Aug, with fair conditions at mid to high latitudes
on 18-Aug. Fair to normal conditions are expected on 19-Aug.
Isolated shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Aug 170
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 131
Aug 119
Sep 119
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Aug 160 15 to 25% above predicted monthly values
18 Aug 160 15 to 25% above predicted monthly values
19 Aug 130 Northern Australian region MUFS 20% enhanced.
Southern Australian region MUFs 15% depressed.
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 92 was issued on
15 August and is current for 15-17 Aug. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 16-Aug were near predicted
monthly values to 35%. Ionospheric scintillation was observed
at Niue and Weipa during the interval 16/0817-1340UT. MUFs are
expected to be 15-35% enhanced over 16-18 Aug. Southern Australian
region MUFs may become 15% depressed post dawn on 19-Aug due
to expected geomagnetic activity on 18-Aug. Isolated shortwave
fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C3.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Aug
Speed: 347 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 29900 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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