[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 15 August 24 issued 2330 UT on 15 Aug 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Aug 16 09:30:49 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 AUGUST 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 16 AUGUST - 18 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Aug: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 0348UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Aug: 227/177
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Aug 17 Aug 18 Aug
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 230/180 225/175 220/170
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 15-Aug was at the R1 level
due to an M1.1 flare at 15/0348UT produced by AR3780 (S12W77,
beta-delta). There are currently nine numbered sunspot regions
visible on the solar disk. AR3784 (N15W18, gamma-delta) is the
largest region on the disk and has shown some decay in its small
leader spots. AR3780 appears to be decaying and will soon rotate
over the western limb. AR3785 (S13W06, beta) has shown some recent
mild growth. AR3789 (N28E18, beta) has exhibited spot growth
over the UT day. Newly numbered AR3790 (S07E70, alpha) recently
rotated over the eastern limb and appears stable. All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be at R1-R2 levels over 16-18 Aug. No Earth-directed CMEs
have been observed. A northwest-directed CME was observed, visible
in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery from 15/1012UT. This CME is considered
to be a farside event and therefore not geoeffective. The solar
wind speed on UT day 15-Aug decreased, ranging from 315 to 390
km/s and is currently near 345 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +9 to -4 nT. The solar wind speed may increase
over 16-18 Aug due to the combined effects of a coronal hole
high speed wind stream from a northern hemisphere coronal hole
and a weak CME arrival on 18-Aug from a CME first observed on
14-Aug.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 15 Aug : A K
Australian Region 2 12100012
Cocos Island 2 -1110011
Darwin 3 22100012
Townsville 4 22101122
Learmonth 3 21200021
Alice Springs 3 12200012
Gingin 2 11100022
Canberra 2 12100012
Kennaook Cape Grim 2 12100012
Hobart 2 11100012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 00000011
Casey 3 22201011
Mawson 6 22100024
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 14 4421 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Aug 8 G0
17 Aug 10 G0
18 Aug 20 G0-G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 15-Aug. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 16-17 Aug. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are
expected on 18-Aug due to the arrival of a CME associated with
an X1.1 flare first observed on 14-Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 15-Aug were
normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected to be
mostly normal over 16-18 Aug, with fair conditions possible at
mid to high latitudes on 18-Aug. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Aug 179
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Enhanced by 115% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 50% during local day.
Enhanced by 95% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 75% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 131
Aug 119
Sep 119
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Aug 170 15 to 35% above predicted monthly values
17 Aug 170 15 to 35% above predicted monthly values
18 Aug 150 15 to 25% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 92 was issued on
15 August and is current for 15-17 Aug. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 15-Aug were enhanced
by 15-75%. Enhancements were particularly strong in northern
Australian regions. Ionospheric scintillation was observed at
Niue, Darwin and Weipa during the interval 15/0741-1434UT. MUFs
are expected to be 15-35% enhanced over 16-18 Aug. Shortwave
fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C4.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Aug
Speed: 412 km/sec Density: 4.9 p/cc Temp: 107000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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