[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 14 August 24 issued 2330 UT on 14 Aug 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Aug 15 09:30:47 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 AUGUST 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 15 AUGUST - 17 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Aug: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.3 13/2245UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M4.2 13/2345UT possible lower West Pacific
M4.4 0404UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
X1.1 0641UT probable all Mid East/Indian
M1.0 1324UT possible lower European
M5.3 1549UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Aug: 248/198
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Aug 16 Aug 17 Aug
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 255/205 260/210 250/200
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 14-Aug was at the R3 level
due to an X1.1 flare at 14/0640UT from AR3784 (N15W05, beta-delta).
One flare was observed at the R2 level and two at the R1 level.
There are currently nine numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk. AR3784 is the most significant region on the
disk given its size, magnetic complexity and central location.
This region has shown spot growth over the UT day and some redistribution
of its smaller leading spots. AR3780 (S12W63, beta-gamma-delta)
has shown some mild decay over the 24-hour period. AR3786 (S25W34,
beta) has exhibited spot development. All other sunspot regions
are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to
be at R1-R2 levels over 15-17 Aug. A partial halo CME was observed,
visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery from 14/0836UT. This
CME is considered to be associated with the X1.1 flare from AR3784.
Modelling indicates this low velocity CME is Earth-directed,
with an arrival on 18-Aug at 01:00UT +/- 12 hours. A west-directed
CME visible at 14/0412UT is considered to be associated with
the M4.4 flare from the western limb and is not geoeffective.
No other Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The solar wind
speed on UT day 14-Aug decreased, ranging from 380 to 465 km/s
and is currently near 390 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +9 to -6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to decrease on 15-Aug before possibly becoming mildly elevated
over 16-18 Aug due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects
from a northern hemisphere coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 14 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 22210202
Cocos Island 3 22210100
Darwin 5 23200202
Townsville 6 23210212
Learmonth 6 33210202
Alice Springs 4 22200202
Gingin 6 32210301
Canberra 4 22210202
Kennaook Cape Grim 4 22210202
Hobart 4 22210202
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Aug :
Macquarie Island 7 34120101
Casey 12 35311212
Mawson 24 55211106
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 14 4311 2234
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Aug 8 G0
16 Aug 8 G0
17 Aug 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 14-Aug. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 15-17 Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 14-Aug were
normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected to be
normal over 15-17 Aug. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Aug 167
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 50% during local day.
Enhanced by 100% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 131
Aug 119
Sep 119
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Aug 160 15 to 25% above predicted monthly values
16 Aug 160 15 to 25% above predicted monthly values
17 Aug 160 15 to 25% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 14-Aug were enhanced by 15-35%. Ionospheric
scintillation was observed at Niue and Weipa during the interval
14/1014-1130UT. MUFs are expected to be 15-25% enhanced over
15-17 Aug. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C3.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Aug
Speed: 416 km/sec Density: 7.2 p/cc Temp: 66100 K Bz: 6 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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