[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 13 August 24 issued 2330 UT on 13 Aug 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed Aug 14 09:30:47 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 AUGUST 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 14 AUGUST - 16 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Aug: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 1729UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.3 2245UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Aug: 260/210
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Aug 15 Aug 16 Aug
Activity R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 270/221 270/221 270/221
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 13-Aug was at R1. Solar region
AR3784(N15E12, beta-delta) produced two M1 class flares. This
region is showing growth in the number of small spots south of
its main spot. Previously large and complex solar region AR3780(S12W47,
beta-gamma) continues to decay with its trailer spots now almost
gone and a decline in penumbral extent evident around its leader
spots. Small solar region AR3788(S06E43, beta) is showing minor
growth. There are currently 10 numbered solar regions on the
visible solar disk. All other sunspot regions are either stable
or in decay. A small 13 degree long solar filament located at
S35W50 slowly lifted off during the interval 13/0700-1000UT.Solar
activity is expected to be at R1, chance R2 levels over 14-16
Aug, primarily due to region AR3784. No significantly Earth directed
CMEs have been observed. A very slow southwest directed CME associated
with the small filament eruption was visible in LASCO C2 imagery
from 13/1100UT. Subsequent modelling shows this slow CME as an
Earth miss. The solar wind speed on UT day 13-Aug declined, ranging
from 375 to 460 km/s and is currently near 393 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 20 nT and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +17 to -7 nT. The IMF
Bt gradually declined over the UT day and is currently near 7nT.
The IMF Bz component was orientated northward for most of the
UT day. A coronal hole is visible on the solar disk with centre
located at N45W00. The moderately high solar latitude of this
coronal hole is likely to reduce any effects on the solar wind,
which may become mildly elevated during 16-18 Aug. Old solar
region AR3762 which previously produced R1-R2 flare activity
is due to return to the southeast solar limb on around 14-Aug
at solar latitude S11, though this region did show some decline
in area toward the end of its previous disk transit.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 13 Aug : A K
Australian Region 7 33210023
Cocos Island 6 23211022
Darwin 7 33221022
Townsville 8 33221023
Learmonth 8 33221023
Alice Springs 7 23220023
Gingin 7 23210033
Canberra 6 23210023
Kennaook Cape Grim 7 33210023
Hobart 7 33210023
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Aug :
Macquarie Island 6 33110022
Casey 12 34421023
Mawson 25 53330046
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 7 (Quiet)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 21
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 51
Planetary 123 7776 7865
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Aug 10 G0
15 Aug 8 G0
16 Aug 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 13-Aug. G0 conditions were generally observed
in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of G1 observed
at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are generally expected
14-16 Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Aug Normal Poor-normal Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 13-Aug at
middle to high latitudes were degraded following recent geomagnetic
storm activity. HF radio communication conditions are expected
to be normal 14-16 Aug. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Aug 146
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20-25%
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20-55%
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 40% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 131
Aug 119
Sep 119
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Aug 150 About 15% above predicted monthly values
15 Aug 150 About 15% above predicted monthly values
16 Aug 150 About 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 89 was issued on
12 August and is current for 12-14 Aug. ASWFC Preliminary HF
Communications Warning 90 was issued on 12 August and is current
for 12-14 Aug. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 13-Aug were variable, with northern Australian
region MUFs near normal during the local day then becoming 25%
enhanced during the local night. Southern Australian region MUFs
were strongly depressed by up to 40% during the local day then
recovering. Ionospheric scintillation was observed at Darwin,
Nuie and Weipa during the interval 13/0848-1150UT. Strong spread
F was observed at Hobart and Perth during local night hours.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15%
enhanced for 14-16 Aug. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Aug
Speed: 489 km/sec Density: 14.0 p/cc Temp: 60100 K Bz: -11 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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