[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 12 August 24 issued 2336 UT on 12 Aug 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Tue Aug 13 09:36:19 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 AUGUST 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 13 AUGUST - 15 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** RED **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Aug: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.3 11/2358UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.0 0849UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.2 2257UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Aug: 272/224
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Aug 14 Aug 15 Aug
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 285/239 270/221 270/221
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 12-Aug was at R1. Large solar
region AR3780(S12W36, beta-gamma-delta) produced two M1 class
flares, with one flare late in the UT day on 11-Aug. This region
has shown decay in its trailer spots and penumbral growth to
the north of its leader spots. Solar region AR3784(N15E22, beta-delta)
is growing and produced an M1 flare toward the end of the UT
day. Smaller solar regions AR3785(S13E34, beta) and AR3786(S25W08,
beta) are also growing. There are currently 11 solar regions
on the visible solar disk. All other sunspot regions are either
stable or in decay. A small thin solar filament located at N25W05
erupted at 12/0309UT. Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2
levels over 13-15 Aug. No significantly Earth directed CMEs have
been observed. No CME appeared to be associated with the small
filament eruption. The solar wind speed on UT day 12-Aug was
moderately elevated with a slight overall declining trend, ranging
from 435 to 536 km/s and is currently near 464 km/s. The solar
wind environment has recently been enhanced due to CME arrivals.
The solar wind interplanetary magnetic field was strongly enhanced
on 12-Aug and is currently enhanced at 20 nT. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 23 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +11 to -21 nT. Two periods of strongly
southward IMF conditions were observed 12/0128-0608UT and 12/0820-2032UT.
The solar wind speed is expected to remain moderately enhanced
as recent CME influences decline and with the possible arrival
of two weak CMEs on 13-Aug. Due to the currently enhanced solar
wind total magnetic field there is a risk of further southward
intervals on 13-Aug. A coronal hole is visible in the northeast
solar quadrant at N40E20 and is approaching the solar central
meridian, though the holes moderately high solar latitude is
likely to reduce any effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Aug: G3
Estimated Indices 12 Aug : A K
Australian Region 54 55557544
Cocos Island 30 55435334
Townsville 62 65657544
Learmonth 60 65556655
Alice Springs 50 65556544
Norfolk Island 41 55556433
Gingin 64 64557655
Canberra 54 55557544
Kennaook Cape Grim 77 55568654
Hobart 88 55668754
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Aug :
Macquarie Island 95 35868653
Casey 27 54544333
Mawson 93 88653455
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Aug :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 10 (Quiet)
Learmonth 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Alice Springs 19 (Quiet)
Gingin 98 (Minor storm)
Canberra 107 (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 69
Planetary 126
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 23
Planetary 28 3344 5545
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Aug 35 Initially G2 declining to G1 with the chance
of a G3 period early in the UT day.
14 Aug 16 G0, chance of G1 early in UT day.
15 Aug 10 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 43 was issued on 12 August
and is current for 12-13 Aug. G3 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 12-Aug in association
with strongly southward interplanetary magnetic field conditions.
G4 periods were observed in the Antarctic region at Macquarie
Island and Mawson. Planetary G4 conditions were observed on 12-Aug
for one Kp index period. Initially G2 conditions, with the chance
of a G3 period are expected early on 13-Aug, with geomagnetic
activity generally expected to decline to G1 by the end of the
UT day. However, two faint CMEs which were first observed on
09 and 10-Aug are also expected to arrive on 13-Aug, and may
possibly extend geomagnetic activity at G1-G2 on 13-Aug. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are generally expected on 14-15 Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Aug Normal Normal-poor Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Aug Normal Poor-fair Poor-fair
14 Aug Normal Fair-normal Fair
15 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 12-Aug at
middle to high latitudes were degraded due to geomagnetic storm
activity. HF radio communication conditions are expected to be
degraded over 13-Aug for middle to high latitudes then improving.
Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Aug 188
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 90% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 15-45% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 131
Aug 119
Sep 119
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Aug 70 Depressed 20 to 40%/near predicted monthly values
14 Aug 140 About 15% above predicted monthly values
15 Aug 150 About 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 89 was issued on
12 August and is current for 12-14 Aug. ASWFC HF Communications
Warning 91 was issued on 12 August and is current for 13 Aug
only. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region
on UT day 12-Aug were variable, with the northern Australian
region MUFs becoming very enhanced during local night hours/predawn
period and southern Australian region MUFs becoming depressed
20-40% after local dawn this morning. Northern Australian region
MUFs are currently enhanced 20% after local dawn this morning.
Ionospheric scintillation was observed at Darwin 12/1201-1220UT.
Strong spread F was observed at Hobart during local night hours.
Southern Australian region MUFs are expected to be depressed
30% during the local day today, with a slow recovering trend.
Northern Australian region MUFs are generally expected to remain
near predicted monthly values. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C3.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Aug
Speed: 474 km/sec Density: 21.3 p/cc Temp: 94400 K Bz: 5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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