[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 11 August 24 issued 2330 UT on 11 Aug 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Aug 12 09:30:50 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 AUGUST 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 12 AUGUST - 14 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Aug: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 0031UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.6 0528UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.6 2018UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Aug: 282/236
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Aug 13 Aug 14 Aug
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 280/233 270/221 270/221
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 11-Aug was at the R1 level
due to three M-class flares, the largest of which was an M1.6
flare at 11/2018UT produced by AR3777 (S09W52, beta-gamma). There
are currently eleven numbered sunspot regions visible on the
solar disk. AR3780 (S12W16, beta-gamma-delta) is the largest
and most magnetically complex region on the disk and has shown
some mild decay over the UT day. AR3777 has exhibited growth
in its trailer spots. AR3784 (N15E42, beta-delta) has shown spot
growth over the 24-hour period. Newly numbered regions AR3786
(S23E08, beta), AR3787 (N15E01, beta) and AR3788 (S09E65, beta)
all recently appeared on the solar disk and have shown spot growth.
All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar
activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels over 12-14 Aug. Several
CMEs were observed, but none are considered geoeffective. The
solar wind speed on UT day 11-Aug increased, ranging from 415
to 520 km/s and is currently near 505 km/s. The solar wind environment
became increasingly elevated over the UT day. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 23 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +19 to -19 nT. The solar wind speed
is expected to increase over 12-14 Aug due to expected CME arrivals.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 11 Aug : A K
Australian Region 17 22444333
Townsville 22 23454334
Learmonth 32 32555534
Norfolk Island 16 22443333
Kennaook Cape Grim 15 22443323
Hobart 15 22443323
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Aug :
Macquarie Island 10 014-----
Casey 30 345-----
Mawson 23 344-----
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 9 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 28
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 1200 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Aug 36 G2, chance of G3
13 Aug 24 G1-G2
14 Aug 12 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 41 was issued on 9 August
and is current for 9-12 Aug. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 11-Aug. G1 periods were observed
at Townsville and Learmonth. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region. G2 geomagnetic conditions are
expected on 12-Aug, with a chance of G3 due to the current elevated
solar wind environment and southward IMF conditions. G1-G2 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 13-Aug due to the expected arrival
of two faint CMEs first observed on 09 and 10-Aug. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 14-Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Aug Fair Fair-poor Poor
13 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
14 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 11-Aug were
normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected to become
degraded over 12-13 Aug due to an anticipated increase in geomagnetic
activity. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Aug 171
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 100% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 131
Aug 119
Sep 119
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Aug 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
13 Aug 130 Near predicted monthly values
14 Aug 160 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 11-Aug were near predicted monthly values to
40% enhanced. Ionospheric scintillation was observed at Niue
Island from 11/0750-1059UT. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values to 15% enhanced over 12-14 Aug. Shortwave fadeouts
are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C4.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Aug
Speed: 394 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 63500 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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