[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 10 August 24 issued 2330 UT on 10 Aug 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Aug 11 09:30:45 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 AUGUST 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 11 AUGUST - 13 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Aug: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 09/2350UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.3 0102UT possible lower West Pacific
M5.3 0237UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.3 1439UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Aug: 291/247
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Aug 12 Aug 13 Aug
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 290/246 280/233 270/221
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 10-Aug was at the R2 level
due to an M5.3 flare at 10/0237UT produced by AR3780 (S12W08,
beta-gamma). Three flares at the R1 level were also observed
over the UT day. There are currently eight numbered sunspot regions
visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered region. AR3780 is
the largest region on the disk and has shown slight decay in
its trailer spots, whilst its main leader spot has shown mild
growth. AR3777 (S09W44, beta-gamma) has exhibited growth in its
trailer spots. An unnumbered region is visible near S12E62 (beta)
and appears to be showing mild growth. All other sunspot regions
are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to
be at R1-R2 levels over 11-13 Aug. A faint northward partial
halo CME was observed, visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery
from 10/0312UT. This CME is likely associated with the M5.3 flare
from AR3780. A west-directed CME was observed late on 09-Aug,
visible in coronagraph imagery at 09/2148UT. This CME is considered
to be associated with an M4.5 flare from AR3777. Modelling suggests
the above two faint CMEs will merge into a combined front, with
an arrival at Earth on 13-Aug at 0000UT +/- 12 hours. No other
Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed
on UT day 10-Aug increased, ranging from 350 to 450 km/s and
is currently near 420 km/s. A moderate solar wind shock was observed
at 10/1156UT, indicative of a CME arrival. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 11 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +10 to -8 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to increase over 11-13 Aug due to expected CME arrivals.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 10 Aug : A K
Australian Region 3 21102111
Cocos Island 4 22112111
Darwin 4 21102112
Townsville 6 22203112
Learmonth 5 22202121
Alice Springs 4 21202111
Gingin 4 21202121
Canberra 3 11102111
Kennaook Cape Grim 3 11102111
Hobart 2 11102110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Aug :
Macquarie Island 1 01001101
Casey 9 33302222
Mawson 17 34413342
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 7 3202 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Aug 30 G1-G2
12 Aug 16 G0-G1
13 Aug 24 G1, chance of G2
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 41 was issued on 9 August
and is current for 9-12 Aug. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in both the Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 10-Aug.
G1-G2 activity is possible on 11-Aug due to a CME arrival associated
with the X1.3 flare first observed on 08-Aug. G0-G1 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 12-Aug as CME effects abate. G1 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 13-Aug, with a chance of G2 due to
the arrival of two faint CMEs first observed on 09 and 10-Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Aug Fair Fair Fair-poor
12 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
13 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 10-Aug were
normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected to become
degraded over 11-13 Aug due to an anticipated increase in geomagnetic
activity. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Aug 160
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 125% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 131
Aug 119
Sep 119
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Aug 130 Near predicted monthly values
12 Aug 130 Near predicted monthly values
13 Aug 130 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 87 was issued
on 7 August and is current for 10-11 Aug. ASWFC SWF HF Communications
Warning 88 was issued on 9 August and is current for 9-11 Aug.
Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region on
UT day 10-Aug were near predicted monthly values to 35% enhanced.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 11-13
Aug. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C4.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Aug
Speed: 388 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 80200 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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