[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 09 August 24 issued 2330 UT on 09 Aug 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat Aug 10 09:30:47 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 AUGUST 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 10 AUGUST - 12 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Aug: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.2 08/2251UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.2 1117UT possible lower European
M1.4 1206UT possible lower European
M1.0 1243UT possible lower European
M1.0 2037UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M4.5 2123UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Aug: 306/267
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Aug 11 Aug 12 Aug
Activity R2, chance R3 R2, chance R3 R2, chance R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 300/259 290/246 280/233
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 09-Aug was at the R1 level
due to several low level M-class flares, the largest of which
was an M4.5 flare at 09/2123UT produced by AR3777 (S09W31, gamma).
There are currently nine numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk. AR3780 (S09E02, beta-gamma-delta) is the largest
and most magnetically complex region on the disk and has shown
spot development over the UT day, particularly in its intermediate
spots. AR3777 has shown growth in its trailer spots whilst its
leader spots have decayed. AR3782 (N02E39, beta) has exhibited
growth in its intermediate spots. All other sunspot regions are
either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at
the R2 level over 10-12 Aug, with a chance of R3. Several CMEs
were observed, but none are considered geoeffective. The solar
wind speed on UT day 09-Aug was mostly stable, ranging from 345
to 435 km/s and is currently near 395 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +6 to -7 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to increase over 10-12 Aug due to expected CME arrivals.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 09 Aug : A K
Australian Region 2 12100011
Cocos Island 3 22111010
Darwin 2 11100102
Townsville 4 21111112
Learmonth 3 21111111
Alice Springs 2 12100002
Gingin 3 22110021
Canberra 2 12000011
Kennaook Cape Grim 2 12100011
Hobart 2 12000011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 11000000
Casey 8 33322111
Mawson 14 35111034
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 8 3221 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Aug 30 G1-G2
11 Aug 30 G1-G2
12 Aug 22 G1, chance G2
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 41 was issued on 9 August
and is current for 9-12 Aug. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 09-Aug. Mostly G0 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated
period of G1 observed at Mawson. G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions
are expected on 10-Aug due to two expected CME arrivals. Further
G1-G2 activity is possible on 11-Aug due to another CME arrival
associated with the X1.3 flare first observed on 08-Aug. G1 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 12-Aug, with a chance of G2.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Aug Fair Fair Fair-poor
11 Aug Fair Fair Fair-poor
12 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 09-Aug were
normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected to become
degraded over 10-11 Aug due to an expected increase in geomagnetic
activity. Conditions are expected to improve to normal to fair
on 12-Aug. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Aug 154
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 90% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 131
Aug 119
Sep 119
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Aug 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
11 Aug 100 10 to 15% below predicted monthly values
12 Aug 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 87 was issued
on 7 August and is current for 10-11 Aug. ASWFC SWF HF Communications
Warning 88 was issued on 9 August and is current for 9-11 Aug.
Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region on
UT day 09-Aug were near predicted monthly values to 35% enhanced.
Strong enhancements were observed in the southern Australian
region. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to 15-20% enhanced on 10-Aug. Degraded conditions are expected
for local night hours on 10-Aug due to an anticipated increase
in geomagnetic activity. Southern Australian region MUFs may
become 15% depressed on 11-Aug if geomagnetic activity eventuates.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values on 12-Aug.
Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C4.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Aug
Speed: 375 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 67900 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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