[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 08 August 24 issued 2330 UT on 08 Aug 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Aug 9 09:30:50 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 AUGUST 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 09 AUGUST - 11 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Aug: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.1 0106UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.3 0435UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.6 1142UT possible lower European
M1.5 1343UT possible lower European
X1.3 1935UT probable all East Pacific/
North American
M1.2 2251UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Aug: 336/314
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Aug 10 Aug 11 Aug
Activity R1-R2,chance R3 R1-R2,chance R3 R1-R2,chance R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 300/259 300/259 260/210
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 08-Aug was R3. Solar region
AR3777(S09W17, beta-gamma-delta) produced an X1.3 flare. This
flare was associated with a weak solar radio burst signature
and some flare associated on disk plasma motion/diming is visible
in SDO193 though perhaps not that strong. Earlier in the UT day
the leader spot of this region showed a rapid separation during
the interval 08/00-10UT and the trailers spots showed a mix of
growth and decay. Overall the spots in this region now appear
more spread out. This region also produced the M2.1 flare and
two M1 class flares. Two M1 class flare were produced by AR3781(N13E24,
beta-gamma). Solar region AR3781 is a smaller region showing
some minor growth in its trailer spots. Large solar region AR3780(S09E16,
beta-gamma-delta) was generally stable with some slight decay
in its trailer spots. This region produced an M1 class flare
late in the UT day and is the largest region on the solar disk.
Solar region AR3774(S07W35, beta-gamma-delta) shows decay in
its numerous small trailer spots. There are eight numbered regions
on the visible solar disk. Other regions are either stable or
in decay. Solar activity is expected to be R1-R2 over 09-11 Aug,
with the chance of an isolated R3 flare. Yesterdays M5 flare
was associated with a faint southwest CME that appeared to be
more shockwave. Event modelling shows an expected arrival 10/0200UT
+/- 12 hours. CME activity was observed on 08-Aug in LASCO imagery.
An initial southwest shockwave is visible in LASCO C2 imagery
from 08/2000UT following the X1.3 flare. A subsequent CME is
becoming visible in later images from 08/2012UT, with perhaps
a more initial south directed plasma bubble expansion, which
may reduce geoeffectiveness. Modelling of this CME will be conducted
as more images become available. A narrow northwest CME was visible
from 08/0412UT more directed out of the ecliptic plane and could
not be correlated to on disk activity. S0 solar radiation storm
conditions were observed on 08-Aug. There is an increased risk
of an S1-Minor solar radiation storm over 9-Aug following the
X1.3 flare. The solar wind on UT day 08-Aug was steady. The solar
wind speed ranged between 346 to 420 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component
range (Bz) was +6 to -5 nT. The solar wind IMF Bz component frequently
fluctuated southward over the first half of the UT day. The solar
wind may become slightly enhanced from second half of the UT
day on 09-Aug and moderately enhanced on 10-Aug due to recent
CME events. Todays X1.3/CME may extend enhanced solar wind conditions
into 11-Aug.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 08 Aug : A K
Australian Region 2 22110001
Cocos Island 2 12110000
Darwin 2 11110002
Townsville 4 22220012
Learmonth 3 22120000
Alice Springs 2 12110002
Gingin 3 22120001
Canberra 3 22110002
Kennaook Cape Grim 2 21110002
Hobart 2 12110002
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Aug :
Macquarie Island 1 11020000
Casey 9 34221212
Mawson 8 43221101
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 1212 2123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Aug 18 G0, chance of G1 second half of UT day
10 Aug 30 G1-G2
11 Aug 30 G1-G2
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 40 was issued on 7 August
and is current for 9-10 Aug. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australia and Antarctic region on UT day 08-Aug. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected for the first half of 09-Aug, with G1
periods possible during the second half of 09-Aug due to a possible
weak CME arrival. G1-G2 conditions expected for 10-Aug due to
two expected CME arrivals. Further G1-G2 activity is possible
on 11-Aug due to another possible CME associated with today's
X1 solar flare. The geomagnetic forecast for 11-Aug may change
subject to CME analysis.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Aug Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
10 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
11 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 08-Aug were
normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected to be
generally normal to fair over 09 Aug. Middle to high latitude
HF conditions are expected to become degraded on 10-11 Aug due
to an expected increase in geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts
are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Aug 156
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15-25%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 131
Aug 119
Sep 119
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Aug 140 Near predicted monthly values to 15-20% enhanced
10 Aug 140 Near predicted monthly values to 15-20% enhanced
11 Aug 100 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 87 was issued
on 7 August and is current for 10-11 Aug. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on 08-Aug were near predicted
values to 55% enhanced. Very strong enhancements were observed
during local night hours in the northern Australian region. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted values to 15-20% enhanced over
09-10 Aug. Degraded conditions are expected for local night hours
on 10-Aug due to an anticipated increase in geomagnetic activity.
Southern Australian region MUFs may become 15% depressed on 11-Aug
if geomagnetic activity eventuates.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C3.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Aug
Speed: 390 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 68600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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