[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 07 August 24 issued 2336 UT on 07 Aug 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Aug 8 09:36:09 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 AUGUST 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 08 AUGUST - 10 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Aug: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.8 0230UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.1 0457UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M4.5 1350UT possible lower European
M5.0 1854UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Aug: 303/263
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Aug 09 Aug 10 Aug
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 270/221 280/233 275/227
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 07-Aug was R2. Solar region
AR3774(S05W22, beta-gamma-delta) produced the M4.5 flare and
an M1.8 flare. Solar region AR3777(S09E06, beta-gamma) produced
the M5.0 flare. The M5 flare profile showed a slow decline and
a weak proton enhancement may follow this flare. Both the M4.5
and M5.0 flares did not appear to be associated with significant
on disk plasma motion/dimming (SDO171/193 imagery). Solar region
AR3781(N16E47, beta) produced an M1.1 flare. Large solar region
AR3780(S10E38, beta-gamma) has been mostly flare quiet and has
shown penumbral growth around its large leader spot and development
in its trailer spots. The trailer spots in solar region AR3777
are growing. Solar region AR3781 is showing minor growth. Solar
region AR3774 and nearby AR3779(S12W11, beta) are both showing
spot redistribution. There are nine numbered regions on the visible
solar disk. Other regions are either stable or in decay. A small
7 degree long solar filament located at N25W15 erupted during
the interval 07/0059-0121UT. Solar activity is expected to be
R1-R2 over 08-10 Aug, with the chance of an isolated R3 flare.
CME activity was observed on 07-Aug in LASCO imagery. A northwest
narrow CME was observed from 07/0212UT which has been associated
with the small solar filament eruption in the northwest solar
quadrant. Event modelling shows a very weak Earth arrival is
possible 09/1100UT +/- 12 hours. A east directed semi halo CME
was observed from 02/0348UT which could not be associated with
on disk activity. A faint southwest directed CME first visible
from 07/1412UT has been associated with the M4.5 flare and is
expected to reach the Earth at 10/0100UT +/- 12 hours. A partial
halo CME was observed from 07/1505UT and overlapped the more
faint southwest CME. This CME could not be associated with on
disk activity. At this stage it is presumed to be a far side
event. The LASCO imagery was up to 07/1900UT and subsequent imagery
will be checked for any possible associated CME with the M5 flare.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on 07-Aug.
There is an increased risk of an S1 solar radiation storm over
8-10 Aug as active solar regions become more westward located.
The solar wind on UT day 07-Aug was steady. The solar wind speed
ranged between 365 to 450 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south IMF component
range (Bz) was +6 to -5 nT. The solar wind IMF Bz component frequently
fluctuated southward over the UT day. The solar wind may become
slightly enhanced from second half of the UT day on 09-Aug and
moderately enhanced on 10-Aug due to recent CME events.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 07 Aug : A K
Australian Region 3 12121001
Cocos Island 2 22110000
Darwin 3 21111002
Townsville 4 12121111
Learmonth 3 22121001
Alice Springs 3 12121001
Gingin 3 12111111
Canberra 3 12121001
Kennaook Cape Grim 3 12121011
Hobart 3 12121001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Aug :
Macquarie Island 2 02021000
Casey 10 34322111
Mawson 16 33212116
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 6 1120 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Aug 6 G0
09 Aug 18 G0, chance G1 second half of UT day
10 Aug 30 G1-G2
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australia
region on UT day 07-Aug. Generally G0 conditions were observed
in Antarctica, with an isolated period of G2 at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 08-Aug and the first half of 09-Aug,
with G1 periods possible during the second half of 09-Aug due
to a possible weak CME arrival. G1-G2 conditions expected for
10-Aug due to another expected CME arrival.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Aug Normal Normal Normal
09 Aug Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
10 Aug Normal Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 07-Aug were
normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected to be
generally normal over 08-09 Aug. Middle to high latitude HF conditions
are expected to become degraded on 10-Aug due to an expected
increase in geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Aug 147
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40-50%.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 131
Aug 119
Sep 119
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Aug 135 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
09 Aug 135 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
10 Aug 135 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 86 was issued on
5 August and is current for 6-8 Aug. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on 07-Aug were near predicted
values to 20% enhanced. Brief weak scintillation was observed
at Niue 07/0830UT. MUFs are expected to be near predicted values
to 15% enhanced over 08-10 Aug. Degraded conditions are expected
for local night hours on 10-Aug due to an anticipated increase
in geomagnetic activity. Southern Australian region MUFs may
become 15% depressed on 11-Aug if geomagnetic activity eventuates.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 8.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Aug
Speed: 417 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 57500 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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