[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 06 August 24 issued 2330 UT on 06 Aug 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed Aug 7 09:30:58 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 AUGUST 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 07 AUGUST - 09 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Aug: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 0303UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Aug: 270/221
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Aug 08 Aug 09 Aug
Activity R1-R3 R1-R3 R1-R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 235/185 240/189 230/180
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 06-Aug was R1, with an isolated
M1.1 solar flare from AR3781 (N11E51, beta). There are a total
of eight numbered sunspots on the disk currently. AR3774 (S05W19,
beta) and AR3777 (S09E09, beta) have both grown rapidly in the
past day. AR 3780 (S10E41, beta-gamma) have undergone movement
in their trailer spots, but their leader spots appear stable.
Many sunspots on the disk are strongly magnetically complex and
solar activity is expected to be R1-R3 over 07-09 Aug.
No CMEs were observed on UT day 06-Aug.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on 06-Aug;
despite a weak enhancement following an X-class flare on 05-Aug,
the 10MeV protons have mostly returned to background levels.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 07-09 Aug,
with a chance for S1.
The solar wind on UT day 06-Aug was near
background levels. The solar wind speed ranged between 400-450
km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt)
was 5 nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +4
to -3 nT. The solar wind is expected to be at background levels
over 07-09 Aug.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 06 Aug : A K
Australian Region 2 11100111
Cocos Island 2 22100010
Darwin 2 22100101
Townsville 2 11100112
Learmonth 3 22100111
Alice Springs 2 12100001
Gingin 2 21100111
Canberra 1 11100001
Kennaook Cape Grim 2 11100111
Hobart 1 11100101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 01100000
Casey 5 23210112
Mawson 11 43310232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10 3332 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Aug 6 G0
08 Aug 6 G0
09 Aug 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 06-Aug. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 07-09 Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Aug Fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Aug Normal Normal Normal
08 Aug Normal Normal Normal
09 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 06-Aug were
generally normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected
to be normal over 07-09 Aug. Equatorial scintillation is possible.
Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Aug 143
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 131
Aug 119
Sep 119
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Aug 135 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
08 Aug 135 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
09 Aug 135 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 86 was issued on
5 August and is current for 6-8 Aug. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region were near predicted values to
30% enhanced. Minor spread-F was observed in most sites during
local night hours. Scintillation was observed from 06/0747 -
1346 UT in Niue and Darwin. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
values to 15% enhanced over 07-09 Aug.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 7.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.10E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C3.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Aug
Speed: 469 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 109000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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