[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 05 August 24 issued 2330 UT on 05 Aug 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Tue Aug 6 09:30:45 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 AUGUST 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 06 AUGUST - 08 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Aug: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 04/2211UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.1 0231UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M6.1 0523UT probable lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.7 1001UT possible lower European
X1.7 1340UT probable all European
M1.0 1802UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.2 1837UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Aug: 247/197
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Aug 07 Aug 08 Aug
Activity R1-R3 R1-R3 R1-R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 244/193 235/185 240/189
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 05-Aug was at the R3 level.
Two X class flares were observed from region AR3767 (S09W78),
which is currently rotating over the solar limb. AR3780 (S10E56,
beta-gamma-delta) may have also contributed to the X-ray flux
during the second flare. There are currently eight numbered active
regions and two unnumbered regions on the solar disk. AR3780
is the largest region on the disk and continues to have high
flare potential. AR3774 (S05W04, beta-gamma) showed growth in
its trailer spots and AR3777 (S09E24, beta) also showed signs
of growth. Unnumbered regions located around N04W62 and N04E21
appeared on the disk over the UT day. All other regions are either
stable or in decay. Solar flare activity is expected to be at
R1-R3 over 06-08 Aug. No significantly Earth directed CMEs have
been observed. A number of CMEs were observed mostly associated
with flare activity near the eastern and western limbs, these
are not expected to be geoeffective. S0 solar radiation storm
conditions were observed, GOES proton flux is currently slightly
evaluated, while currently remaining below the S1 level. This
enhancement is likely associated with the X1.7 flare from AR3637.
S0-S1 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 06-08
Aug. The solar wind speed on UT day 05-Aug ranged from 341 to
545 km/s and is currently around 450 km/s. The solar wind interplanetary
magnetic (IMF) was enhanced in the first half of the UT day due
to geomagnetic activity, before returning to background levels
later in the day. The peak total interplanetary field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 22 nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz)
was +19 to -10 nT. The solar wind is expected to be at background
levels over 06-08 Aug. Two small isolated coronal holes are visible
on the solar disk with centre locations around N05W08 and N25E20.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 05 Aug : A K
Australian Region 6 22322111
Cocos Island 5 12321110
Darwin 7 23321111
Townsville 9 23422112
Learmonth 9 23422211
Alice Springs 6 22321111
Gingin 8 22422121
Canberra 5 12322101
Kennaook Cape Grim 6 22322111
Hobart 6 12322211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Aug :
Macquarie Island 7 22233101
Casey 13 24521121
Mawson 26 33543354
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 12 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 28
Planetary 50 3454 7644
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Aug 8 G0
07 Aug 8 G0
08 Aug 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on 05-Aug. In the Antarctic region, G1 conditions were
observed at Mawson and Casey. G0 conditions are currently expected
for 06-08 Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions were normal on UT
day 05-Aug. HF radio communication conditions are expected to
be normal to fair over 06-08 Aug. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Aug 141
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 75% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 131
Aug 119
Sep 119
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Aug 130 Near predicted monthly values
07 Aug 130 Near predicted monthly values
08 Aug 130 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 05-Aug were
near predicted values in the Australian region. Scintillation
was observed at Niue 05/0820-0840UT. MUFs are expected to be
near predicted monthly values for the northern Australian region.
Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.80E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C3.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Aug
Speed: 368 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 53200 K Bz: -7 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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